The reduction of the quarantine for the asymptomatic in the USA and the fact that, thanks to the vaccines, Omicron could downgrade the Covid-19 to a kind of cold or flu, favor new records on the financial markets, which are starting to close the year with solid earnings.
European stocks hit five-week highs and file another session up, while Wall Street is off on the right foot to confirm the Santa Claus Rally, even if it's currently mixed. The S&P 500 updates its intraday high, but the Nasdaq is fractionally down. Apple's decision to close its 12 stores in New York in this period due to the pandemic weighs on the technological list. Customers must now collect their online orders outside the stores. However, the title of Novavax flies, after the approval of its anti-Covid vaccine also in India.
In Europe, Piazza Affari rises by 0,79%, to 27.444 points and is getting ever closer to the top 2021 (27.868 points), reached on 15 November last. Paris updates its all-time highs and closes with an increase of 0,57%; Frankfurt +0,81%; Amsterdam +0,46%; Madrid +0,76. Stop for the Bank holiday London.
OMICRON FORECASTS
Supporting risk appetite, in a context of low volumes, are a series of optimistic valuations on Omicron. According to JP Morgan, the new variant will not have a significant impact on growth, because it could accelerate the end of the pandemic, given that it is proving to be more contagious but less lethal than previous mutations. Confirming this thesis is the fact that in Great Britain and the USA, where infections have risen exponentially in recent days, hospitalizations and deaths are slower than before.
According to a study carried out in South Africa, limited in cases but still significant, Omicron will probably defeat Delta, the previous variant, since it also induces antibodies against the latter.
News also came from the US front during the night that the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has reduced the recommended isolation time for asymptomatic people to five from the ten days previously envisaged.
In Italy too, work is being done in a similar direction, at least for those vaccinated with the third dose and the CTS will meet tomorrow to decide.
In partial contradiction to what has been said so far, the spread of the pandemic could eventually inhibit, if not derail, the plans of central banks currently aimed at a tighter monetary policy in 2022, according to Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho bank.
OIL RISES, GAS FALLS
Cautious optimism on Omicron boosts oil buying as Brent approaches $80 a barrel.
Black gold prices are also supported by supply-side disruptions, particularly in Ecuador, Libya and Nigeria due to maintenance problems and the closure of some fields.
In addition, US crude stockpiles are expected to have declined last eight for the fifth straight week, according to preliminary data from a Reuters poll, while fuel stockpiles are expected to remain mostly unchanged.
On the other hand, the price of gas fell, which went below 100 euro Mwh today, after having reached a peak of over 180 dollars per Mwh last week. Prices were shaken by liquid gas ships arriving from the USA, which grew by a third on average over the last weekend. Analysts then trust in mild temperatures that can calm the demand for heating. Who will be cold is the bank account of the families according to Davide Tabarelli of Nomisma Energia. “Without government intervention we would have a 61% increase for gas; by 45% for electricity, with an overall expense on an annual basis in 2022 of 1.200 euros more per family”.
The euro/dollar moved little on the foreign exchange market, trading at around 1,13.
BUSINESS PLACE FULL OF ENERGY
The main list of Piazza Affari roars thanks to many stocks related to energy. Oil stocks such as Saipem shine, +2,33%.
Utilities are dominant, after a period of scarce satisfaction: A2a +2,11%, Hera +1,83%, Italgas +2,08%, Snam +1,65%, Enel +1,56%.
Banks and financial stocks appreciated with Banco Bpm +1,67% and Unipol +1,48%.
The small Banca Ifis also shines, +5,53%, after the go-ahead for the transfer of the registered office of the controlling holding company La Scogliera to Switzerland which will strengthen the capital structure of the institution with a positive impact on capital ratios.
There are only four negative blue chips and they show modest declines: Diasorin -0,21%; Campari -0,12%; Telecom -0,07%; Pirelli -0,07%.
Outside the main basket, in the renewables sector, Alerion stands out (+4,06%) to new historic highs, with the market speculating on the launch of a takeover bid after the press rumors according to which the family that controls the company aims to sell its 43%. Il Sole 24 Ore writes that the controlling shareholder could sell up to 43% of the company, with an operation worth about 800 million euros, including the debt.
LOWER THE SPREAD
The session was moderately positive for bonds: the spread between Italian and German ten-year bonds closed at 134 basis points (-1,62%), while the yield on BTPs stopped at +1,1%.
