In previous articles su FIRST online we the strategic context outlined, first of all institutional, within which the future of Rai near future, in view of the Renewal of the Concession of April 2027. Let us now complete with the elements of most immediate impact.
I big themes on which the debate will focus in the coming months are: first of all the resources to count on (license fee and advertising), at the same time the reform of the governance alone and/or of the entire perimeter of the national audiovisual system and, finally, the new dimensions of the market.
Uncertainty of resources: the “fee” question
At the moment however, as we have also written, everything appears to be still: the canon is debated year by year and there is no certainty on what the amount will be for the following year. In the 2025 Budget Law, 207 of December 30, the term “canon” in art. 1, paragraph 861, is not even mentioned unlike the previous year when the reduction from 90 to 70 euros was decided. It is difficult for any company to plan its future if it does not have certainty of resources you can count on.
The advertising variable
La advertising revenue is then an indefinite variable: it fluctuates in relation to the “appreciation” of the offer and, in any case, suffers the difficulties of “competition” with investments on the Web progressively growing to the detriment of broadcasting. The reform of Rai, despite the “hinging” in Commission VIII of the Senate is stuck in its initial stages: other proposals are missing (from the Government parties) and no hearing calendar has yet been set. It seems absolutely unlikely that a text shared by the majority and the opposition and approved by Parliament will be reached within a few months. So much so that it is entirely plausible to suppose that as early as next July our country could incur a Community infringement procedure for failure to comply with what is specifically provided for by the EMFA (European Media Freedom Act).
So, today, it is only possible to pay attention to contingent factors that Rai will have to deal with immediately. Let's see some of them. Last year, the following were approved: the Service Contract and the Industrial Plan. Both are connected by a common thread: they require economic resources and, as had happened in the two previous similar documents, there is a strong disproportion between the commitments requested and the financial resources available. And it is precisely in these terms that last year's debate on the Service Contract was concentrated: much space was given to statements of principle (e.g. the Digital Media Company) and instead relegated the "specific commitments" previously carefully indicated in art. 27 now moved to a generic "annex 1" with the intrinsic objective of "containing" the obligations.
The Rai Industrial Plan
We come to Industrial Plan: the document in our possession, the presentation of the Guidelines of the 2024-26 Plan, is of particular importance because it allows us to carefully observe the possible scenarios. First of all, two risks are highlighted (page 9): “Risk of losing relevance and centrality in the face of a market shifting to digital across all verticals and risk of losing economic and financial sustainability“. To address these risks, “… the objective is set to achieve the transformation into a Digital Media Company by optimizing the business perimeter and enhancing the company assets” which then, translated into numbers, means that the most significant intervention of the Plan, for an amount of 190 million, would be the one derived from the possible sale of minority shares in Rai Way (page 12). Sale which, as we have written, is today stopped at the sole signing of an MoU last December with which the lines of a possible agreement between the listed company of Via Teulada and Ei Towers are traced. Moreover, following the Prime Ministerial Decree of last May with which Rai was authorized to reduce “up to 30%” of the capital of Rai Way, the estimate of the operation foreseen in the Plan would have been reduced from 190 to 130 million. The fact remains that, whatever the financial variables that may be determined, the operation is structurally at a standstill first of all due to the lack of a Rai presidency capable of allowing the necessary and indispensable support of the Board of Directors. Furthermore, in our opinion, the industrial and not only financial perspective of the operation still seems to be lacking.
The evolution of the public
We now come to the "perimeter of main activity" or the "core business" of the Public Radio and Television Service Company or the editorial product. Rai is what it produces, what it is able to offer to the general public in terms of "educating, informing and entertaining" to take up the well-known BBC axiom. From this point of view, the prospects appear rather uncertain. The various “competitions” both on the broadcast and broadband fronts are pressing. Mediaset ratings are closely following Rai's both on DayTime and PrimeTime (see Auditel data at the end of the year), while keeping in mind that the free-to-air television audience is progressively decreasing for everyone and that the "generalist" audience tends to be increasingly older: this is more the case for Rai than for Mediaset where there is a difference of about 10 years in play. And it is worth remembering that, as we have also written, since the end of last year the law came into force Auditel Total Audience, the new system for detecting audience data which might not be very advantageous for Rai precisely because it takes into account other ways of dividing the TV product between tablets, PCs and cell phones.
The great genres: between sports, cinema and fiction in crisis
Rai has weakened in the major genres: sports (football in particular), cinema with important titles and, last but not least, in a genre considered a "family jewel". According to a Report of the Phrases Study, in the last year from a survey on the audience data for fiction, precisely one of the most profitable television products for Rai, it is highlighted that few products have exceeded the threshold of 20% share in prime time: Lolita Lobosco with a record 27% and followed by the 14th edition of Don Matteo, History, Mameli and Teresa Battaglia. There are many good reasons to make this kind of Rai product less and less appealing: reduction of production investments, the very strong competition of streaming of OTT platforms, then again the different way of enjoying it (viewing “personalized” in time and on the device used) and, finally, the start of fiction on RaiUno quite “late” that is after 21.35 pm. In entertainment, the goose that lays the golden eggs remains the pre-evening with the game of parcels that maintains its position regardless of the presenter.
Sanremo 2025 under the lens
Speaking of the host, in the next few days the Festival of Sanremo and, despite the numbers on the advertising revenue they give hope that the threshold of last year has been exceeded (just over 60 million) there are many fears for the ratings of this new edition entrusted to Carlo Conti who replaced Amadeus. And always on the subject of overlapping genres: the start date of Sanremo 2025 has been moved forward precisely so as not to coincide with the Coppa Italia matches broadcast on Mediaset networks (which in fact recorded a high number of ratings). In recent days it should also be noted that Alessandro Araimo, the CEO of Warner, owner of the Nove channel where Amadeus has already landed, has thrown down heavy gauntlets to Rai starting from Sanremo 2026 “… ready for the race to have Sanremo” headlined La Repubblica.
A separate analysis could be done on the topic “Public Service information” which, data in hand, shows clear signs of crisis on the news. For years, from the first “Gubitosi project” to the subsequent and mysterious “Verdelli plan” passing through the well-known “annex 4” of the 2018 Industrial Plan and ending with the previous Service Contract where a “remodeling of the newspapers” was hoped for, this argument has always fallen on deaf ears. Who and why is opposed to a radical “reform” of Rai information?
