Skip Marini or skip the Pd-Pdl pact, with all that it entails on the formation of the future government and on the return or removal of the electoral spectrum? The announced failure of the second attempt by Franco Marini - joint candidate of Pd, Pdl and Civic Choice - to conquer the Quirinale opens very challenging political questions not only on the future of the elections for the new Head of State but for the course of the legislature itself.
There are essentially three roads facing the secretary of the Democratic Party, Pierluigi Bersani, who fielded Marini's candidacy with the consent of Berlusconi and Monti:
1) insist on the initial candidate hoping that from the fourth vote (i.e. from tomorrow afternoon) - when the quorum will drop to 504 votes (simple majority of 51% instead of 2/3) - Marini will be able to gather the consensus needed to climb the Colle in framework of the policy of broad agreements Pd-Pdl.Sc, but this seems, at the moment, the most improbable hypothesis;
2) change sides in the third or at most fourth vote but maintain the Pd-Pdl-Sc pact and move towards a candidate who has more appeal than Marini and knows how to garner the support of the whole Pd and perhaps of Sel as well as those of the centre-right : from this point of view the hypothesis of a candidacy of Massimo D'Alema is making great strides;
3) change both horse and policy of broad agreements and choose a candidate who can be elected without Berlusconi's votes but with those of Grillo and Vendola as well as the Pd: in this case the natural candidacy is that of the former founder of the Ulivo and former premier Romano Prodi.
Of course, the three paths are alternatives to each other and are not easily interchangeable. In the first two cases, the policy of broad agreements would be confirmed and the election of a new President of the Republic who is the result of the votes of the Pd, Pdl and Civic Choice would pave the way for a government of purpose directly or indirectly supported by the centre-left (without Sel) and from the centre-right.
The political scenario would be completely different in the event that Bersani decides to archive the pact with Berlusconi and to reopen the doors to Grillo by nominating Romano Prodi as a candidate. In this case Bersani would have good luck winning the battle of the Quirinale but would hardly be able to form a government afterwards and the return to the political elections would advance in great strides with enormous risks for the Democratic Party and above all for Bersani himself. Berlusconi's reaction would be furious but above all it would be difficult to explain to the voters why the PDL was unloaded and the prospect of establishing a stable government with the centre-right, despite the fact that the snipers and the divisions in the battle for the Quirinale are all within the Pd.
Difficult times are coming for Bersani and the Democratic Party. We'll see if the night brings advice.
