From Massimo D'Alema to Romano Prodi, from Stefano Rodotà to Giuliano Amato: they are all invited to the grand ball to go up to the Quirinale. Voting will begin tomorrow, April 18: for the first three ballots, a two-thirds majority (or 671 members) is required, while from the fourth onwards, 504 will suffice.
The favorites, to date, sthey appear to be D'Alema and Amato, expressed by the Pd but also appreciated by the Pdl and Berlusconi. If the logic of broad understandings were to prevail, the name of the next President of the Republic would not come out of this shortlist. Much will depend on the outcome of the expected meeting (if confirmed) between Pierluigi Bersani and Silvio Berlusconi.
However, several doubts still weigh on D'Alema and Amato. Amato received the no from Roberto Maroni (who, moreover, would prefer a female president) and even Nichi Vendola doesn't seem enthusiastic about his choice. Furthermore, Dr. Sottile's Craxian past risks sowing discontent in the base of the Democrats.
Similar speech for D'Alema. In fact, the same short-circuit acts on both candidates: the approval they receive from the center-right is inversely proportional to the success they receive from the electoral base of their own party. And the Democratic Party, with one eye also on the possibility of new elections, cannot afford another unpopular choice. Furthermore, it remains to be seen whether Pier Luigi Bersani will really be willing to propose a candidate as cumbersome as that of former premier Massimo D'Alema who does not hide that he sees the hypothesis of a return to the polls as smoke screens.
The Cassese hypothesis remains alive, a very respected constitutional judge and distinguished jurist.
If, on the other hand, logics other than broad understandings prevail, the games will also change for the candidates. From the fourth ballot onwards, the centre-left, which can count on 490 parliamentarians and delegates, would suffice to draw a handful of votes from the lists of the grillini or the montians, without looking at the approval of the centre-right. At that point the good name could be that of Romano Prodi, father of the Olive tree, but there is also the possibility that forces converge on Rodotà. Should Gabanelli decline her candidacy, the jurist would be chosen by the 5 Star Movement.
For the Democratic Party, another rose bristling with thorns, in a path that becomes more complicated every day. D'Alema and Amato have their pros and cons, while supporting Rodotà could mean, having reached this point, bowing to the will of the 5 Star Movement, giving a sign of weakness. Otherwise there is Prodi. Or an outsider like Emma Bonino.
A difficult choice, which cannot fail to take into consideration the rather remote possibility of imminent elections. A choice that will not simply have to take parliamentary and party dynamics into account, but that will also have to be popular.
