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What strategies to trade and invest in Türkiye now?

From the focus of the Intesa Sanpaolo Study Centre, the latest updates on the composition and destination of Turkey's trade with Italy, Europe and the world. With some surprises.

What strategies to trade and invest in Türkiye now?

In Turkey, the international crisis of 2009 resulted in a contraction of the values ​​traded by 27%, but already in 2010 there was a new increase (+23%), which continued more lively in 2011 (+25%). 2012 was characterized by a sharp slowdown in growth (+3,5%), while in 2013, from the still provisional data from local sources published in the last focus Intesa Sanpaolo, Turkey traded about 403 billion dollars (+3,7%). And while imports recorded an increase of 6,4% during the year, exports recorded a decrease of 0,4%. The net balance of trade is therefore negative for Turkey. The deficit was almost 100 billion in 2013, up on the previous year (+19%). The negative balance in 2013 was equal to 12,3% of GDP.

The product detail of imports sees the prevalence in 2013 of minerals (23%), machinery (21%), metals (12,4%), as well as means of transport (8,2%) and chemical products (7,7%). Exports are represented by textile and clothing products (19,4%), machinery (15,3%), metals (13,8%), means of transport (12,5%), agro-food products (11,2%). Among the minerals, the energy ones stand out, especially crude oil and gas, refined petroleum, petroleum gas and coal. The category of machinery sees the prevalence of mechanical ones, mainly consisting of processors, diesel engines, while among the electric and electronic ones, telephone sets and parts of televisions are important. The imported metals consist mainly of iron and steel in the form of scrap, followed by copper and copper articles, in particular from refined copper and cables. Among the means of transport, the most important share is given by motor vehicles, especially cars and their parts, accessories and components, followed by airplanes and helicopters. The imported chemicals are mostly organic chemicals (alcohols and cyclic hydrocarbons), as well as pharmaceuticals, consisting of already dosed drugs. As regards the details of the major export categories, Turkey exports just under a fifth of the total textile and clothing products, in particular knitted clothing and accessories (t-shirts, pullovers, cardigans, sweaters), woven clothing and accessories, including dresses, suits, shirts, jackets for both men and women, as well as miscellaneous textile items. Among the machinery, the mechanics always stand out with refrigerators, freezers, engine parts, while among the electrical and electronic ones, insulated cables, television receivers and monitors are relevant. Metals consist predominantly of iron and steel in the form of sheets and bars, while the articles in iron and steel are mostly structures and pipes, followed by aluminum and its products in terms of importance. Means of transport are mainly exported as motor vehicles, both cars and trucks, as well as ships and boats. Agri-food is made up of fruit (shells and citrus fruits), in addition to cotton. The net balance is positive for the textile and clothing categories, for agri-food products, for furniture and for miscellaneous goods. It is negative for minerals, for machinery, for chemistry, for stones, glass and ceramics, for wood, paper and printing, for metals, for rubber and plastic, for means of transport.

Analyzing the trend of the main categories imported in 2013, the main item, given by minerals, marked a decline of 6,8%, while machinery grew by 12,5%. Metals, on the other hand, were down with a negative variation of 1%. As regards exports, which in 2013 saw a settlement of their value equal to 0,4%, textile and clothing products, the main item of Turkish exports, marked an increase on an annual basis of over 9%. At the same time, machinery recorded an increase of almost 6%, driven by the particularly positive dynamics of mechanics (+8,3%). Metals, on the other hand, saw an annual drop of almost 5%, due to the particularly negative dynamics of iron and steel (-12,3%). Means of transport (+14,6%) and agro-food products (+11,3%) are growing.

Europe is Turkey's main supplier (53%), especially EU countries (37%), followed by the CIS markets (13%), while the EEA countries have a smaller share (3%). Asia contributes over 30%, with China accounting for around 10% of imports. Turkish exports are mostly destined for Europe (48,3%), in particular for EU markets (39,5%). Asia bought almost 37% of Turkish products, in particular the countries of the Middle East and the Gulf absorbed over 22%. The main trading partners are Germany (9,4%), Russia (7,9%), China (7%), Italy (4,9%), the USA (4,5%) and the 'Iran (3,6%). Turkey imports vehicles and mechanical machinery from Germany (23%), especially cars, diesel engines and general machinery, while it exports textile and clothing products (16%), especially knitwear and fabric clothing, mechanical machinery (16%) such as engine parts, refrigerators and freezers, vehicles ( 13%). Over 68% of Turkey imports energy minerals from Russia, followed by iron and steel (12%), while it exports vehicles (14%), mechanical machinery (11%), fruit (9%). China supplies more than 50% of machinery, both electrical and electronic, as well as mechanical, while Turkish exports to China mainly consist of non-energy minerals (38%), salts, earth, stones, cement and clay (30%), inorganic chemical products (8 %) mechanical machinery (3%) and cotton (2%). Turkey imports iron and steel from the USA (16%), mechanical machinery (9%), energy minerals (9%), cotton (7%), and aircraft, helicopters (7%). Exports concern vehicles (12%), mechanical machinery (11%), iron and steel (9%), salts, earth, stones, cement and clay (6%), and aircraft, helicopters especially in parts (5%). Iran supplies almost 88% of energy minerals, followed by plastic and plastic items (5%), copper and copper items (1%), organic chemistry products (1%) and zinc with its products (1%). 40% of exports are made up of pearls, stones and precious metals (8%), followed by plastic and plastic items (5%), electrical and electronic machinery (4%), wood and its finished products (3 %). It is therefore interesting to note the dynamics of commercial exchanges with the main partners: if they exist the Chinese share increased from 8% to almost 10% and the German one rose to 9,6% from 9,3%The weight of Iraq, on the other hand, is growing sharply and, recovering from the war, has purchased almost 8% of the total exported from Turkey (from 3% in 2008). The most significant contractions are found for Italy (4,4% from 5,9%) and for France (1,7% from 5%).

Despite usò Italian exports to Turkey have grown considerably in the last ten years, going from 9,7 billion in 2004 to 15,6 billion in 2013. In 2013 imports reached 5,51 billion (+4,8%), while exports amounted to 10,08 billion (-4,8 .1,7%). The share of trade with Turkey on the overall Italian total rose from 2007% in 2,1 to 2012% in 2013 and XNUMX.

Il net balance by category highlights a surplus for Italy as regards mining, food, wood, paper and printing products, refined petroleum products, pharmaceuticals, rubber and plastics, metals, electronic, electrical and various goods, while there is a deficit for agricultural products, for textiles and clothing, means of transport. Italy mainly imports textile and clothing products and means of transport, both for over 23% of the total, followed by metals (14%), rubber and plastics (7%) and agricultural products (5%). In detail, the various categories include, among the textile and clothing products, knitted fabrics, various outer garments, underwear, fabrics, textile fiber yarns, ready-made textile articles. Among the means of transport, motor vehicles and parts of motor vehicles prevail, while among the metals, iron and steel in primary processing, copper and aluminum stand out. Exports consist of mechanical machinery for more than 22% (in particular, machines for the textile industry, those for general use and for special uses, equipment for non-domestic use for refrigeration and ventilation, pumps and compressors), followed by refined petroleum products for over 15%, means of transport (12%), metals (10%) and chemicals (10%).

In this sense the composition of the total imported and that of the total exported have undergone some important variations over the years. While in the past, textiles and clothing represented the predominant item of Italian imports (in 2008 the share was equal to about 32% of the total imported), currently it has significantly reduced its share, bringing it to equal importance with means of transport (23,3%). Metals rose from over 16% to just over 14%, while the rubber and plastics sectors as well as agricultural products saw a significant increase (7% from 4% and 5% from 3%, respectively). As far as Italian exports are concerned, the share of machinery has decreased, almost halving its relevance from over 43% in 2008 to approximately 23% in 2013. The percentage relating to metals also decreased, passing from over 13% to just under 10%. Refined petroleum products are on the increase, which exceed 15% from less than 1% in the previous five years. Means of transport (12% from 8,1%) and chemical products (9,8% from 7%) also grew.

For its part, the Turkish share of the total Italian sector is relevant both on the side of the commercial exchanges that from that of opportunityà of investment. In particular Turkey plays an important role as a supplier of knitted products, as well as knitwear and accessories, cotton, fruit, vehicles, rubber and rubber goods. Among exports, the importance of the Turkish market should be noted as regards energy minerals, dyes, colors and pigments, iron and steel, various chemical products, rubber and rubber articles, plastics and in plastic. Comparing the trend over time of the main categories is the increase in the share of means of transport among imports should be noted, which went from less than 1% in 2008 to around 4,4% in 2013. The importance of imports of textile and clothing products (4,8% from 4,4%), metals ( 2,3% from 1,3%), rubber and plastics (3,3% from 1,4%) and agricultural products (2,3% from 1,1%). Among the major export sectors, we note the increase in the Turkish share of refined petroleum products, which exceeded 9,4% from 0,2% in 2008. The importance of mechanical machinery is also growing (3,2% in 2013 against 1,9% in 2008), means of transport ( 3,2% from 0,6%), metals (2,2% from 0,9%) and chemicals (3,9% from 1%).

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