The phase of political turbulence that has affected the area of North Africa and the Middle East since the end of 2010 has had a significant impact on the economies of the four Mediterranean countries, both those affected by regime change (Egypt and Tunisia), and those invested only indirectly by the Arab Spring (Jordan and Morocco). Between 2004 and 2008 these countries had recorded sustained growth in GDP (+5,7%), thanks to both favorable external conditions, see the positive cyclical phase, and internal ones, such as the adoption of reforms to stimulate private initiative, capital and foreign trade. The global financial crisis of 2008-09 had limited effects on these economies, given their low exposure to toxic financial instruments and the limited international openness of local financial systems. The slowdown in exports, which in any case followed the fall in trade in 2009, was largely offset by the public support to domestic demand, through subsidies and generous salary increases in the public sector. In the two-year period 2009-10, the average growth of GDP, although lower than the average of the previous five-year period, thus remained firm at around 4,5%.
The case of the impact of the political upheavals that subsequently affected the area was different. The interruptions and dysfunctions suffered by the various economic activities, together with the simultaneous phase of cyclical weakness once again experienced by the EU economies, led to a significant slowdown in the growth rate in 2011 (+0,7%). If Egypt and Tunisia have seen a real contraction of the economy (-0,8% and -2%, respectively), the Jordan it grew by 2,6%. In Morocco, mainly thanks to the recovery of agricultural production, growth actually accelerated to 5,0% from 3,6% in the previous year. In 2012, the four countries together returned to growth at a more sustained pace (+3,1%, with Egypt and tunisia in noticeable recovery). But in 2013 the renewed difficulties in the process of stabilizing the political-institutional framework encountered in some countries returned to weigh, particularly in Egypt and Tunisia. Malfunctions and concerns about the security conditions caused by the ongoing conflicts in the nearby markets (Syria e Libya over all) or even within national borders have further conditioned the economic developments of the region. In the whole year, growth thus slowed down again to an average of 2,5%, slowing down in particular in Egypt and Tunisia (+1,7% and +2,6% respectively), while remaining substantially at the levels of the previous year in Jordan (+2,8%) and rose in Morocco (+4,4%).
The phase of political upheaval was tackled with measures which in the two-year period 2011-2012 entailed, on the one hand, a sharp increase in public deficits given the expansion of current spending on wages and subsidies and the negative impact on revenues of the slowdown in the economy and, on the other, thanks to a less favorable trend in private capital movements, a significant drop in reserves. In 2013, the start of albeit timid revisions of subsidies once again had positive repercussions on public finances in Jordan and Morocco, while in Egypt and Tunisia the persistent internal tensions ended up favoring a further increase in deficits. The authorities have practiced flexible management of monetary policy, giving priority, depending on the circumstances, to supporting the economy or defending the exchange rate. Egypt raised its reference rates at the end of 2011 and in the spring of 2013 to counter the pressures towards a weakening of the pound (however allowed to depreciate by about 20% against the dollar), while from the summer of 2013 the authorities, comforted by the stabilization of the currency thanks to the financial support of friendly countries, have returned to cut them, despite the still high inflation. The Tunisian Central Bank, for its part, supported the economy with cuts in rates and in the compulsory reserve ratio; subsequently, with the acceleration of inflation, it took a restrictive stance, raising rates several times. In Jordan, the defense of the fixed exchange rate with the dollar was in turn the basis of the rate hikes in 2011 and 2012, while the rebuilding of the foreign exchange reserves (thanks to aid and loans from friendly countries and the IMF) together with the inflation made it possible to make new cuts in 2013. Finally, in Morocco, in 2012 the Central Bank reduced the reference rate by 25bp and the compulsory reserve ratio from 6% to 4%.
Secondo Intesa Sanpaolo in the two-year period 2014-2015 economic growth in the four countries, although still limited, is expected to accelerate again (to 3% in 2014 and 4,2% in 2015). Consumption will remain the main driver, but other drivers will join. In particular, investment is expected to rise for the first time since the outbreak of political upheaval, supported by public intervention largely financed by aid from friendly countries and to a lesser extent by savings deriving from an albeit timid reform of subsidies and transfers. Exports and income from tourism are also expected to strengthen, thanks to the more sustained demand from Europe and from Gulf markets under more favorable local security conditions. In the medium term the further acceleration of growth towards levels capable of at least partially reabsorbing the high unemployment, especially among young people, remains conditioned in the four countries by the affirmation of a climate of political stability and economic policy guidelines in support of private entrepreneurial initiative, especially SMEs, and the development of trade and foreign investment.
Italy's overall exchanges with the four countries considered have grown significantly since 2004 reaching 13,5 billion euros in 2011. In 2012 there was a decrease (-2,1%) which continued in 2013 (-0,5%), when bilateral trade between Italy and the markets in question settled at 13,2 billion.
Egypt and Tunisia are the most important partners and cover respectively 0,6% and 0,7% of our foreign trade, while Jordan and Morocco account for 0,1% and 0,3%. The Italian trade balances are positive in all cases and total 3,4 billion. With Egypt, Italian exports have had a contrasting trend in recent years, despite remaining in 2013 at levels close to the highs of 2008, while imports have declined since 2012 with the new recessionary phase of the Italian economy. Exchanges with Tunisia were particularly lively in terms of exports, which reached a four-year high in 2013 (3,2 billion). Imports, on the other hand, after a drop in 2012, recovered the following year, returning to around 2,3 billion. A similar trend was observed for Jordan and Morocco. Merchandise detailing prevails in Italian imports of textiles and clothing, which in 2013 represented almost 26% of the total, followed by mineral extraction (20%). Other relevant categories are chemical products (19%) among which refined petroleum products (10%), agri-food products (13%), followed by machinery (10%) and metals (8%) stand out. Italian exports are mainly made up of chemicals (34%, in particular refined petroleum products (21%) and chemical products (7%), and machinery (31%), especially mechanical (23%), followed by metals and metal products (11%) and from textile and clothing products (11%).
