Russia and Ukraine slide towards war. Vladimir Putin signed the document with which recognizes the legitimacy of the self-proclaimed “Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics”. Immediately afterwards, the Russian President spoke of the possible entry of the armed forces into occupied Donbass for "a peacekeeping operation", which according to the UN would actually be "an invasion of Ukrainian borders". Troop movements were reported during the night.
"They will find or construct ways to impose sanctions on us – Putin admitted on live TV – they would have imposed them on us anyway”.
The reaction of the Ukrainian president is harsh, Volodymyr Zelensky: “We are not afraid of anything or anyone, the Ukrainians will not give up a single piece of the country. Internationally recognized borders will remain so.
A few hours before the situation escalated there was talk of a possible Biden-Putin summit to avoid the worst. But then the Russians denounced trespassing by Ukrainian saboteurs in Russian territory and the "destruction of a checkpoint 150 meters inside Russia in Rostov". Allegations that Kiev rejected as "fake news".
According to Western intelligence, Russia would have 50 battalions ready to enter Donbass. If the leaders of the People's Republics ask for help, the invasion could begin.
US and EU strengthen sanctions against Russia
As for the reaction from the US and the EU, it is on the way a strengthening of sanctions against Russia, but contained, in the hope that the threat of tougher measures will act as a deterrent against the invasion. Washington therefore chose to preserve unity with Europeinstead of proceeding unilaterally with immediate and tougher measures. The line of unity prevailed precisely because Putin counts on his ability to split the West, using the lever of Russian energy on which Italy and Germany depend.
Words from the White House
“We anticipated a move like this from Russia and are ready to respond immediately – wrote White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki – President Biden will soon issue an executive order banning new investment, trade and funding by US citizens to, from or in the so-called DNR and LNR regions of Ukraine. This decree will provide the authority to impose sanctions on any person determined to operate in those areas of Ukraine. The State and Treasury Departments will have more details shortly. We will also soon announce further measures related to the flagrant violation of Russia's international commitments. To be clear: these measures are separate and would be in addition to swift and severe economic measures which we have prepared in coordination with allies and partners, should Russia invade Ukraine further".
But tougher measures remain (for now) a threat
The measures against remain on the table Russian banks (perhaps only the 4-5 largest and closest to the Kremlin institutions), the exclusion from Swift banking system for international financial transactions, the blocking of export and import on a large scale, starting with high-tech products, and the final stop at Nord Stream pipeline 2 between Russia and Germany, so dear to Berlin.
