REBOUND TESTS IN BAGS. MILAN +0,9%
BUT THE GREEK TRAGEDY SCARY THE EURO
Volatility day. After the first half hour of bullish trading, the selling has returned. But, after 12, the European stock exchanges turned sharply higher again: right now in Milan the FtseMib index gains 0,93% to share 13082, , Frankfurt +0,77%, Paris +1,29%, London. +1,47%.
The behavior of the bond markets is similar. The yields of peripheral government bonds turn downwards: -3,9 basis points that of the BTP to 5,6%, -4,3 the Spanish Bono to 6,1%. Italy-Germany spread stable at 423.
THEeuro it is up slightly against the dollar at 1,2564.
Petroleum recovering after two consecutive downward sessions, the WTI rose by 0,6% to 90,4 dollars a barrel.
Il European summit which was held yesterday postponed to June the concrete solutions to relaunch growth while the clash between France and Germany is now open over Eurobonds. Convergence, however, between François Hollande and Mario Monti: for both it is necessary to give more time to Greece and resort to Eurobonds.
The leaks of recent days continue on the possibility of Greece leaving the euro. The latest mystery dates back to yesterday, when both the Belgian finance minister and sources from the Ewg, the Eurogroup's work team, confirmed the existence of contingency plans for an exit from Greece.
- Citigroup economists assign such a scenario a probability of 50-75%. Citi banking analysts are convinced that, if isolated, Greece's exit is manageable, estimating the combined public and private exposure at 410 billion euros, of which 360 billion headed by the ECB, EFSF, EU and IMF. Possible measures to prevent contagion include new LTROs, deposit guarantees, bank recapitalization, lower stringency requirements, rate cuts, new Troika aid packages, more government purchases and an increase in bailout funds.
Banks up with the exception of Banca Popolare di Milano, which falls by 3,2%. MontePaschi goes positive +1,5%, Banco Popolare +0,3%, Intesa +0,68%, Unicredit +0,1%.
Shines Azimuth +2,82%, followed by Mediolanum +1,78%. Off to a good start, Premafin turns downwards -4,5%, after the go-ahead from its board of directors for the Fondiaria-Sai proposal -0,3%. Positive Milano Assicurazioni +1%.
Industrial titles contrasted: Fiat +0,98%, Fiat Industrial -0,13%, Finmeccanica -2,1%, Pirelli -1%.
Sale stm +1,46% which sees improvements in profits and revenues for the next quarters thanks to an increase in orders and the prospect that the ST-Ericsson joint venture will halve its quarterly loss by the fourth quarter. Diasorin +1.02% Kepler intervened on the stock and started hedging the stock with a buy recommendation and a target price of 28 euros.
