“Registrations dropped by 9,2% in November”. This is the Promotor research center's estimate for the Italian market, presented today at the traditional press conference on the trend in the auto sector, two days before the official opening of the Bologna Motorshow.
The bad news, however, does not stop there: in December the drop will be even more significant, -14,7% compared to December 2010 and the year should close with an overall drop of 10,8%, for a total of one million and 750 cars registered.
There is not much optimism for 2012 and forecasts, with bowls still, are to drop slightly below the 2011 figure, at one million and 730 thousand. All this if the euro holds up to the impact of recent months. To give a sense of the current situation, the president of Promotor, Gian Primo Quagliano, quotes Ungaretti: "It is like autumn leaves on the trees". Also for Promotor the way to save the euro lies in the role of the ECB, while the Italian road to recovery must reconcile "rigor and growth".
“We are rather disappointed by the intervention times of the Monti government – claims the researcher -. However, we hope that alongside rigor there is a valid package of development measures, capable of freeing up resources to be allocated to strategic sectors such as the automotive and construction sectors”. It is unlikely, Quagliano admits, that it will be possible to hypothesize generalized incentives, but an intervention on ecological solutions is desirable.
The car, on the other hand, could not bear further tax increases "because the pockets of motorists have already drawn heavily, above all with excise duties on petrol". In 2010, the tax authorities would have collected 68 billion euros from cars, while at the end of 2011 they should already count on 1,8 billion more from fuels alone, against declining consumption.
In short, a blow that is difficult to absorb for consumers, who are also oppressed on the insurance front. For Quagliano, the liberalization of rates for motor liability insurance, introduced in 94, proved to be a failure: “Competition hasn't cured anything at all, on the contrary, based on ACI data, we can say that a 1.000-1.500 displacement paid, before the reform, a premium of 411 euros while today it pays 1.821 euros. It would probably be best to back off. There was an increase of 3434% against inflation of 50,3%”.
Yet the Italian car market has good potential: 36,8 million cars are on the road, 1,9 million need to be changed every year, about 400 new ones, in short, the target of 2,3 million registrations is, on paper, possible. “If the measures that the Government adopts give consumers some breathing room, make those who have more pay and not those who have less, then we can expect a recovery as early as next spring, aiming for 1,8 million in 2012, for reach two million in 2013”.
