In the first quarter of 2013, Italy gained market shares in more than half of its commercial outlets: the improvement in international competitiveness is allowing for an attenuation of the fall in turnover in the manufacturing industry.
The rates of fall in turnover are slowing down
In the first five months of the year, the economic situation remained critical. In fact, overall turnover shows a decrease of 4.5% on a trend basis, widespread across sectors: only two anti-cyclical sectors such as food and beverages and pharmaceuticals recorded positive changes. However, the pace of contraction in production seems to be easing and the figure for the first five months appears to be improving precisely for some sectors that were particularly in difficulty last year, such as electronics, household appliances and, in part, furniture.
Improve competitiveness: share gains in more than half of our sales markets
In the first months of 2013, the production system confirmed the ability to export at faster rates than the average rates of European competitors. France and Germany, in particular, suffered decreases in sales of more than 3%, in contrast with the +1.3% experienced by Italian manufacturing.
In a context of slowing foreign demand, Italian industry gained shares in more than half of the outlet countries, with peaks of over 70% for food and beverages and pharmaceuticals and data above the manufacturing average for a large part of the engineering sector. of the automotive sector and, after years of severe difficulties, of products and materials for construction.
Share gains also in the USA, pending TTIP
The competitive improvement is also evident in a particularly important market such as the United States (fig.3), where Italian companies in many sectors could benefit in the next few years from the positive results of the negotiations for the liberalization of trade and investments in the of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). For the commodity structure of exports to the United States (especially in the fashion system and in food and beverages), for the small size of the exporting companies (which make the fixed costs determined by some non-tariff barriers much more onerous and difficult to sustain) and due to the high degree of corporate integration between our companies and US companies in many sectors (mechanical, fashion and chemical-pharmaceutical), the Italian economy could receive positive impulses from regulatory homogenization between the two sides of the North Atlantic .
Concerns from China over the fall in its imports of capital goods
On the other hand, there is some concern about the decline in Chinese imports of capital goods, which has been underway for over a year, given the role of these products in Italian exports.
The reasons for this contraction derive from a mix of factors, some of a cyclical nature, such as the economic slowdown that started after 2011 and has not yet fully ceased, and others structural, related to China's competitive strengthening in the mechanical sector, as highlighted by the strong improvement in the normalized balance. It will therefore be necessary to pay ever greater attention to the growing competition that China may bring to the large traditional producers such as Italy, Germany and Japan.
Employment: during the crisis, the more qualified jobs held up better and the number of workers in the mechanics increased
The picture on the internal market is confirmed as extremely negative, both for investments and for consumption, the contraction of which is largely attributable to the employment situation, which has never been so critical in our country since the historical series are comparable. Unemployment data show a significant increase, just as the authorized hours of layoffs continue to grow.
However, the in-depth analysis of the evolution of employment in the five-year period 2008-'12 also highlights some positive aspects. In particular, the growth of employment emerges in an important sector for our manufacturing such as mechanics and the better maintenance of the most qualified jobs, both in production and in related activities (professional and managerial). These elements, albeit in a context of severe difficulties, underline the ability of Italian companies to maintain internally the skills necessary to quickly reactivate production, if and when the demand situation improves.
