Prometeia's forecast report (July 2013) speaks of Italy as a a country which, despite making great efforts, continues to walk a razor's edge. 2013 began with yet another fall in economic activity (-0,6% GDP and -0,5% industrial production) which will continue throughout the summer, albeit with gradually less intensity . Overall the fall of the GDP during this year it should be equal to 1.9% against -2.4 in 2012 and in view of the 0.7% increase in 2014. GDP growth could exceed 1% in 2015 and reach 1.5% in 2016 reflecting a contribution of domestic demand in the order of 1 percentage point.
Exports will play a crucial role in the recovery of the Italian economy. The main aspect of the macroeconomic evolution during 2013, as the report explains, was characterized by the almost zeroing of the contribution to GDP growth by exports. Exports should go from 2.2% in 2012 to 0.1% in 2013, to return to values around 4% in the following years.
Employment forecasts. The evolution of employment will continue to be dominated by the weakness of the economic cycle. The attenuation of the pace of GDP contraction during the summer and the reversal of the trend that Prometeia forecasts for the end of the year will loosen the grip on the labor market but will not prevent further job losses. Even assuming that the phenomenon of 2012 is not repeated and that therefore the job offer remains substantially unchanged with respect to current levels, the unemployment rate will continue to rise and could reach 12.7% in the middle of next year.
