Italian industry, heavily penalized by the drop in domestic demand, suffered a drop in turnover in 2012 estimated at around 6% at constant prices. The long five-year period of the crisis had very negative impacts especially on the consumption of goods related to mobility and housing, which are more sensitive to the erosion of the disposable income of Italian families and to the uncertainty associated with employment prospects. The contraction in consumption was transmitted backwards along the supply chains, affecting the more upstream sectors in proportion to the drop in final consumption. Furthermore, the further contraction of investments in construction weighed, which in the last five years showed a cumulative decrease of around 23%. The direct effects linked to the construction cycle were particularly penalizing for sectors such as construction materials (which experienced a negative contribution to production levels of more than 20%), ceramics, iron and steel and wood products (with contributions between - 10% and -5%).
The drop in domestic demand has led Italian companies to focus more and more on exports. Exports have highlighted the constant ability of Italian companies to seize the opportunities present on international markets. With the exception of Food & Beverage, Pharmaceuticals and Metallurgy, the difficulties of Western European markets have prompted Italian producers to diversify their efforts. Oil fuel and the basins of the Mediterranean and the Gulf – where, despite a thousand uncertainties of a political nature, the social springtime is being followed, in some countries, by an economic springtime – these are the areas that have allowed the majority of Italian exporters to mitigate the weakness of the internal market and European. Metallurgy and the automotive supply chain are the sectors that have increased sales the most in North America, while from neighboring countries Products and materials for construction, Furniture and Appliances have also been able to take a beneficial breath of fresh air.
On the other hand, widespread growth in all the major world markets has characterized the Food and Beverage sector, which more than others in recent years has been pushing the accelerator of internationalization despite numerous regulatory, cultural and perishable product constraints. On the other hand, full integration into the network of multinationals in the sector continued to drive pharmaceutical sales abroad.
In Asia and Latin America, once again among the most dynamic world areas, the good sales results, more evident in the case of the sectors producing consumer goods, do not contribute significantly to the growth of overall Italian exports, due to volumes still too low.
Diffusion, size and distribution: the three "ds" that hold back Italian exports
Italy is unable to fully translate its manufacturing potential into concrete opportunities for growth in production and employment levels. This is due to a lower percentage of national exporting companies compared to European competitors (Tab. 2), especially on the closest markets and in non-manufacturing sectors, an equally reduced average value of company exports and an insufficient contribution from the sector distribution (and other services). These three factors limit the possibility of greater roots and penetration in foreign markets, necessary to seize all the opportunities of world demand, and of a more effective diversification of geographical outlets, to reduce the risks linked to negative cycles of traditional markets.
The difficulty in creating national champions of industry and distribution contrasts with the concrete possibility, already in the short term, of favoring a wider and more stable participation of Italian SMEs in foreign markets, especially those closest geographically. An important role could be played by the strengthening of trading companies, capable of aggregating the varied, often quality, offer of small businesses and of conveying it abroad with distribution and logistic structures suitable for international competition.
Furthermore, for the more structured medium-sized Italian companies, a tool with greater international roots is represented by Foreign Direct Investments, which allow not only geographic but above all cognitive proximity to foreign markets. The case of Mechanics is particularly significant, a sector that in recent years has represented one of the winning arrows in the bow of Italian industry, which despite direct competition from the more structured German companies has in common with them the share of turnover achieved by foreign subsidiaries (Fig. 1), increasingly necessary also to offer adequate after-sales services.
Is the worst behind us?
After the sharp fall between 2008 and 2012, even in the year that has just begun, it will be difficult for domestic demand to stop its decline, making the economic-financial balance of the manufacturing fabric even more fragile. In fact, with the new decline in 2012, production levels returned to the lows of 2009, leaving some sectors, such as producers of durable goods and those more linked to the construction cycle, with a strong excess of production capacity (Fig. 2) and the need for a probable restructuring of the business fabric.
The exceptional nature of the downturns recorded in some sectors is, however, leading many operators to believe that the minimum levels are close to being reached. From this point of view, some signs of improvement in the expectations of companies on orders and production can be interpreted (Fig. 3), such as those of Furniture, Appliances, Cars and Motorcycles and Building Products and Materials. Furthermore, the positive starting points in the fashion system and in the chemical intermediates could indicate a greater confidence of companies with regard to the foreign channel and, above all, the possibility of concretely benefiting from them, to interrupt the vicious circle on the domestic market fueled by the erosion of income -consumption-production.
