In the first five months of 2011, exports of Italian manufactured goods, net of the energy component, grew at a rate of +17% (in value), a result in line with the +17.7% recorded by German exports in the same period. The encouraging data comes from the Prometeia-Intesa report, which underlines how this growth has allowed Italian manufacturing to stop the erosion of external accounts.
The acceleration recorded by metallurgical exports stands out, growing at decidedly higher rates than German products. The greater liveliness also characterizes the large-scale consumption and pharmaceuticals. Electrical engineering and chemical intermediates (basic chemistry and specialized chemistry) also travel at a similar pace. Results substantially in line also for fashion and electronics.
The liveliness of exports drives the entire Italian manufacturing turnover: +11.1%, in the first five months of this year, also supported by price increases. And, as expected, in almost all sectors the growth in foreign turnover has been more dynamic than the domestic one, testifying to the persistent weakness of domestic demand which continues to be affected by the prudence of consumers and businesses.
But the report warns, The impact of the debt correction maneuvers, in Italy as in other industrialized countries, and the physiological slowdown of the cycle also in emerging countries, will create fewer growth opportunities also for Italian companies in the coming months. Indeed, in the latest surveys, the expectations of manufacturing companies show a widespread worsening of expectations compared to the beginning of the year, with few sectoral exceptions.
The approach of a more contained growth phase seems to be confirmed by the fact that the deterioration of expectations is greater for the sectors upstream of the production chains (chemical intermediates, metallurgy, glass, rubber and plastic, etc.) which are usually the first to perceive signs of cycle slowdown. In addition to a picture of greater uncertainty about the prospects for demand, there is also the risk induced by the tensions currently characterizing the financial and raw materials markets.
