Prometeia estimates growth in the Italian GDP for this year by 1,4% and 1,3% for 2019. As regards 2018, the forecast is in line with that of Bank of Italy and slightly lower than those of the Government, the IMF and Brussels, which see growth of 1,5%, like that of 2017. In 2019, however, according to Government and EU, GDP should grow by 1,2%.
That's what we read in March Prometeia Forecast Report, presented today in Bologna. In Italy - explains the note - activity remains robust, albeit with a marginal decline compared to +1,5% in 2017, also due to the easing of particularly favorable external conditions, including the sustained performance of international trade and the very expansive European monetary policy. Indeed, internationally there will be no protectionist escalation, according to Prometeia, but there will still be a slowdown in world trade (from +4,6% in 2018% to +3,7% in 2020).
As regards Italy specifically, the pace of fiscal consolidation is slowing down to cope, at least partially, with the pre-election announcements. The path - highlights Prometeia - would in any case allow for a moderate drop in public debt compared to GDP (130,3% in 2018), which means free up space in the deficit for five billion euros, which can be used to give greater substance to an instrument such as the Inclusion Income or to cut some taxes, without however being able to give substance to all the promises of the electoral campaign, which from the Citizenship Income to the cut of the Fornero law would cost much more than that amount.
