After downward revision of 2020 GDP estimates carried out by the European Commission, too Prometeia worsens forecasts for Italian gross domestic product, which this year is expected to contract by 10,1%, before rebounding in 2021, growing by 5,9%. In mid-May, the consultancy firm assumed a drop in GDP of -8,5%. Furthermore, according to Prometeia, to return to pre-Covid levels it will be necessary to wait for 2025. In short, no V-shaped recovery, but a slow recovery that risks costing a lot in economic, social and employment terms.
Wanting to make a brief summary of forecasts for 2020: the -10,1% of Prometeia is joined by the -11,2% of the EU Commission. According to the OECD, in the event that a second wave of infections arrives, GDP could drop by 14%, if instead the situation remains under control, the drop will be 11,3% (rebound between +5,3% and +7,7 .2021% in XNUMX). In mid-May Confindustria spoke instead of a -9,6% GDP contraction in 2020, while the estimate entered by the government in the Def (-8%) And that calculated by the IMF (-9,1%) are at this point the most "optimistic". Finally, Bankitalia, in its final considerations, assumed a -9% in the basic scenario and a -13% in the more pessimistic one. Not only that, according to Palazzo Koch, if the Government is forced to impose a new lockdown, more than one Italian family out of two (55%) will risk slip below the poverty line.
Returning to Prometeia, in addition to the GDP forecasts, the consultancy firm has also adjusted those on the rivercontribution deficit/GDP, which according to estimates will settle at 11%, and on debt/GDP, expected at 159%. The fiscal stimulus for this year is estimated at around 5 percentage points of GDP, but "it doesn't seem sufficient to decisively restart consumption and investment".
"The worst recession ever recorded in times of peace - writes Prometeia - will be followed by a rebound next year, as all economic activities (including tourism and entertainment) will be able to return to normal levels of operation and, with them, l employment and income of the most affected operators”. The company expresses a partially positive opinion on the policy measures introduced, considering them "timely broad and innovative", capable of helping "to contain the costs of this crisis", but insufficient to "prevent the decline in 2020" or to "subsequently support a rebound". “Prometeia predicts that only in 2025 will GDP be able to return to pre-Covid levels ". reads the report.
Meanwhile, the level of economic activity will remain below its pre-crisis level, with less employment, higher household savings and higher corporate debt.
As far as European policies are concerned, according to Prometeia, Italy will eventually choose to use the Mes, while the Member States will be able to agree on the Recovery Fund, allocating "650 billion euros in total to be made available to support economies in the restart phase: 350 billion in non-repayable grants and 300 in loans." Italy could turn out the largest beneficiary of these funds, receiving 18,8% of the total: 122,2 billion between grants and loans.
The Prometeia report concludes the GDP estimates for the euro area (-8,1%) and the world (-5,2%). Above all, the forecasts for China (2020 GDP: +0,6%) and the United States (2020 GDP: -5,7%) stand out. “In Europe, China and the United States, the pandemic is still scary, but the most alarming health situation is in emerging countries,” explains the company.
