Profit warning for the Fondiaria-Sai group: after the loss of value of the securities portfolio of Fonsai and Milano Assicurazioni for approximately 250 million, the group was forced to announce, at the request of Consob, that Fondiaria-Sai (which yesterday earned 3,59% on the Stock Exchange) will not reach the objective envisaged in the 2011 budget of a net profit of over 50 million euro on a par with the subsidiary Milano Assicurazioni (net profit of approximately 50 million). No new budget is foreseen. At the end of September the solvency margin is estimated at approximately 115% and the group continues its efforts aimed at achieving the 120% target at the end of the year.
For Milano Assicurazioni this item can be estimated at 160 million, of which 25 million attributable to the Fonsai shares in the portfolio. The consequences? These numbers fall on the eve of the meeting of the shareholders of Igli, the company controlled by the Ligresti, Gavio and Benetton families which today will deal with the 223 million debt issue with Mediobanca and Unicredit due at the end of October. Among the most accredited hypotheses there is talk of a renewal until July (expiry date of the agreement) for 150 million while the remaining 73 would come from a shareholders' loan.
But at the table there will be a stone guest: the Salini group, the new shareholder of Impregilo. Gilberto Benetton has already anticipated that he does not intend to change the composition of Igli. But what will Ligresti do? In the event of a suitable offer, it could come out to Salini's advantage which could add to its 8,3% the approximately 9,9% held by the Paternò-based builder. With the full consent of Unicredit, moreover. A move that could materialize in the spring, when it will be possible to cancel the pact. Or even earlier, if the line passes, which does not dispense at the Gavio house, of a stew of Igli, which gives back to the shareholders pro rata shares and debts.
In favor of a disengagement of the family plays the more than alarming condition of the listed family box, Premafin, now under siege: debts three times the capitalization; collateral securities that cover only two-thirds of the credit lines granted by banks. To get out of the emergency, a capital increase (at least 100 million) would be needed for the holding company, along the lines of the scheme that was conceived at the time of the agreement with Groupama. But after the entry of Unicredit and the cascading recapitalization of the subsidiaries, the picture has changed. And the family alone does not intend to face this effort. Inevitable, therefore, that the transfer of family jewels becomes topical again. Even if, at these values, selling the entire stake in Fondiaria Sai would not be enough to cover Premafin's exposure.
