Bad news from the Italian industry. In May, production fell by 0,6% compared to April, according to the seasonally adjusted index elaborated by Istat, while it rose by 5,7% over the year, according to the raw index. On the basis of the index adjusted for calendar effects, however, production fell by 0,6%. This is the first trend decline since the beginning of 2016. The consensus expected an increase of 0,4%.
However, the estimate of the Confindustria Study Center (Csc) foresees a recovery in production as early as June. The quick survey shows an increase of 0,5% compared to May, the month in which, as communicated by Istat, there was a decrease of 0,6% compared to April.
In assessing the cyclical downturn in May, according to CsC, it is necessary to take into account the statistical methods of seasonal adjustment which are sensitive to the number of working days (two more than in May 2015). Therefore we expect a consistent, and equally statistically influenced, rebound in June. According to the CSC survey, the qualitative indicators are consistent with an increase in activity in June and herald a positive trend in industrial production in the coming months.
Going back to Istat, production increased by 0,1% on average in the March-May period, in the five months the raw index shows an increase of 2,2% and the corrected one by 1,3%.
The seasonally adjusted monthly index shows negative cyclical changes in all sectors; capital goods (-1,8%), intermediate goods (-0,9%), energy (-0,6%) and consumer goods (-0,3%) decreased. In trend terms, the indices corrected for calendar effects recorded, in May 2016, only one increase in the intermediate goods sector (+1,8%); on the other hand, energy decreased (-5,9%) and to a lesser extent the groupings of capital goods (-1,5%) and consumer goods (-0,7%).
As regards the sectors of economic activity, in May the sectors that recorded the greatest trend growth were those of the manufacture of means of transport (+5,6%), of the manufacture of computers, electronic and optical products, electromedical equipment, measuring instruments and watches (+4,3%) and the production of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations (+2,5%).
The greatest decreases were recorded in the sectors of mining (-13,5%), the manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products (-9,7%) and the textile, clothing, leather and accessories industries (-6,5% ).
