“Without the euro our country would be totally destroyed. Devaluation no longer worked and made our industry poorer and poorer. I am convinced that in the long run we will see”. Romano Prodi explains the reasons why he still firmly believes in the euro. The occasion is a meeting organized yesterday by The Ruling Companies at the Italian Stock Exchange where Prodi gave an extensive speech on world politics and the economy. “I have no regrets. I would do it again”, Prodi said, however admitting: “I thought it would be handled with more solidarity and better.” Already because, we had to continue working for the integration of Europe but “Kohl was different from Merkel. The contextual conditions were different”.
A EUROPE AT MULTIPLE SPEED
BUT ABSENT FROM THE POLITICAL CHESSBOARD
It suffices to note that the phrase Kohl always repeated has completely disappeared from political language: “I want a European Germany, not a Germanic Europe”. Today, Germany is an increasingly difficult country to decipher: on the one hand the business community is in favor of the euro, on the other the public spirit is essentially not. Merkel has managed to prevent the birth of populist parties that are born in Italy and France by appropriating their platform: first to Germany and then if it remains to Europe.
“And this – explained Prodi – also affects economic policy. I don't expect big changes, we will have a wave, no drama of the end of the euro but a difficult management of Europe. We are likely to have a multi-speed Europe”.
On the other hand, Prodi would only ask Germany to do what any country would do in a situation of enormous surplus (increase domestic demand). Which would favor Italy. On the contrary, today this enormous surplus keeps the value of the euro high, and this creates problems for our country. Germany is perfectly fine in the euro: the Germans know very well that if they left they would no longer sell cars. But the problem is more complex still.
"Let us be careful – warned Prodi – that a single country cannot resist in the face of globalisation. However, I am not convinced that the Germans think so. One part thinks they could tackle globalization on their own”. On the other hand, Europe is de facto out of the loop: at the moment it does not exist as a decision-making reality on the international political arena. Prodi recalled the great events of recent years: from Iraq to Libya. “There hasn't been one in which Europe has been united – he pointed out – A divided kingdom cannot bear fruit. We no longer have leaders who put Europe in the foreground, we no longer have a Franco-German two-cylinder engine, or rather we have a very small and a very large cylinder, now European policy is decided by Merkel which is absolutely different from that of Kohl".
FROM A MONOPOLAR TO A MULTIPOLAR WORLD
OBAMA HAS WATER AT THE THROAT BUT NOT È OUT OF PLAY.
Europe is out of the game in a phase in which the important changes of the last are redesigning the geopolitical balance from a monopolar world to a multipolar world. The United States is still the leading country but it can no longer rule the world alone. “We don't believe – Prodi said – those who say that the US empire is finished. They have resumed growth satisfactorily for a mature country and in addition they have the good fortune of shale gas which makes them essentially independent from the Middle East for their energy policy".
Of course, Obama went through a political fatigue that he had not foreseen, as a cover of the Economist a few weeks ago which depicted the US president who as a man who "walked on water" found himself with "water at throat". “The USA – pointed out Prodi – have medium-term problems such as the continuous widening of the differences between rich and poor with imbalances in demand and many economists wonder how much this will be tolerable in the future. Furthermore, the internal political polarization that the Tea Party has widened in the past has made it more difficult to resolve political problems as we have seen with the budget debate.
CHINA, YOUNG COMPETITIVE TO IMPRESS
THE AFRICAN FERMENT THAT ITALY DOESN'T NOTICE
On the other side of the globe is China which will continue to run although it is a country that presents significant challenges. For Prodi, a growth rate of 7-8% will continue and is in any case impressive for a country that has reached a medium level of wealth. “The spirit of the new Chinese generation – he said – he is so strong and projected towards success, so competitive that he makes an impression”.
The challenge is one of development based on domestic consumption. They made reforms on land, on the one-child policy, on the prohibition of torture. But no change in the power structure. “In China we have the opposite of the Leopard: nothing must change for everything to change in the underlying society – Prodi said – I don't know how long this can last without changes in the democratic structure. But for now it's working great."
Until today they have remained out of all conflicts and tensions, but in the future it will be increasingly difficult to do so for a country that exports people, goods and capital. The Russia, which has had a complicated relationship with China, defined by Prodi as "good but prudent", in the meantime has enjoyed strong growth but entirely based on energy and the question remains here about a country that depends on only one export. In any case, all this is reflected in the scenario in the Middle East which has become even more complicated.
But Africa is not just the oil exporting countries. There is also ferment in other countries such as Ethiopia, which has nothing. "Italy has not noticed the African ferment - Prodi said -, while we are extremely active in countries such as Libya, Egypt where we are the first or second exporter. Africa has woken up because it has had the influence of China with the purchase of raw materials and interventions in public works”.
ITALY, AAA BIG COMPANIES WANTED
Finally, on Italy, Prodi calls for caution. "I don't see the rigorous recovery that some are talking about but a slight recovery - he said - We have lost 8 percent of GDP and we must go well beyond zero point growth, there is a need for a further push".
For Prodi, the main weaknesses of the country are different from those on which our European partners focus and which we are accused of. In particular, an important issue at work is changing the way it is employed, looking at aspects such as internal flexibility, the issue of working hours, to name but a few. Furthermore, for Prodi they are missing the “large companies that can interpret distant markets with the necessary strength and vigour”. "Perhaps there is Finmeccanica – he concluded – or Fiat, even if with regard to the latter the problem is not whether it is large or small but whether it is Italian or not".
