For the privatization of Poste Italiane we enter the decisive week. Consob will give the green light to the information prospectus of the IPO (Initial public offering) "I reasonably hope within the next week, this would allow us to respect the calendar", said the president Giuseppe Vegas to those who asked him, on the sidelines of a conference in Milan, on the timing of the next decisions. Poste Italiane's intention, as we know, is to start the offer on 12 October and the expectation is that the go-ahead from the national stock exchange control commission will arrive by next Friday, 10 October. The engines are warming up and in the meantime the estimates of the banks in charge of the placement are circulating. Mediobanca Securities and Banca Imi (Mediobanca is one of the global coordinators of the IPO, together with Banca IMI, Unicredit, Citigroup and BofA Merrill Lynch) in two different studies, anticipated by Reuters, evaluate Poste among the 9,3 and 11,2 billion in the first case and among the 8,95 and 11,42 billion in the second.
Banca Imi estimates a payout of 61% for the coming years, while Mediobanca analysts estimate instead that between 2015 and 2018, Poste Italiane could distribute cumulative dividends of 1,7 billion euro out of a total of 2,6 billion in profits, corresponding then to a 65% payout.
"If our expectations are correct, Poste Italiane could distribute 400 million euros in dividends in 2015, tending towards 500 million euros in 2018", reads the Mediobanca document.
The study highlights not only the peculiarity of Poste Spa on the international scene (only 14% of revenues are generated by the postal service) and the strength represented by the 13.200 post offices, spread throughout the territory.
Among the shadowy points, Mediobanca points out the poor visibility of the receivables due from the Ministry of Finance and the public administration and the sustainability of Banco Posta's interest margin in a scenario of low interest rates for an extended period of time.
The opportunities include, among others, the possibility that household savings can be transferred from government bonds to asset management products and the potential value of the real estate portfolio.
Lastly, Mediobanca analysts forecast that Poste Italiane's revenues could rise from 28,51 billion in 2014 to 29,86 billion in 2017, with Ebitda rising from 1,36 billion to 1,73 billion in 2017. net will instead grow from 212 million in 2014 to 674 million in 2017.
The Banca Imi study underlines that in the next few years the group can rely on the profitable insurance business (about 66% of revenues) and on financial services (about 19% of revenues, including Bancoposta and Banca Mezzogiorno). And he believes that the group can record a progressive improvement in results over the next few years. The estimate is that the turnover could go from 28,512 billion in 2014 to 29,823 billion in 2017, with an Ebit growing from 691 million to 1,04 billion in 2017, thanks above all to the contribution of insurance services and the turnaround of postal services. Net income should rise from 212 million in 2014 to 640 million in 2017.
Among the risks – such as higher than expected costs which could involve the restructuring of the postal division and the presence of strong unions which could delay the process (a first agreement has however just been reached by the management with the trade unions, ed) – the unknowns linked to the remuneration for the universal service and the country risk deriving from the 115 billion bonds held by the financial divisions.
As usual, the study specifies that this is a long-term assessment.
