In the race between Italo and FS for the quotation on the Stock Exchange, Davide beats Goliath one to zero. But who is to blame for the delay in the privatization of the FS - which has already begun to integrate with Anas? It is not from politics, busy overcoming the electoral test on March 4th. Surprisingly, says the managing director of FS Renato Mazzoncini, in a conversation with Radio Capital. In truth Mazzoncini says much more: in fact he plays the de Profundis to privatisation. “From a regulatory point of view – explains the CEO – since the Frecce perform an essential service for the country, we need a law. However, we did not request this rule because we wanted to understand the context economic we were in and bond issuance experiments make us think deeply. It seems quite clear to me which is the most effective financing instrument. Certainly if the theme is that of financial procurement, FS should use bonds”. As for Ntv, “we both went bond hunting to finance ourselves and it's quite easy to see the difference between the bonds we brought home and their rates. They rightly go public because this is the best way for a company of this type to finance development and growth. This year we have issued bonds for 2 billion with interest rates around 1% and it is much more efficient to finance ourselves with bonds than with a free float issue”.
Therefore, "a profound reflection" is underway on the privatization of FS, but it is the reasoning presented by Mazzoncini that leaves us perplexed. The IPO announced by Italo as well as that promised by FS certainly represent an opportunity for the shareholders (Della Valle, Montezemolo, Cattaneo but also Intesa, Generali and Peninsula in the case of Ntv) to recoup the many money paid out. And Italo has absorbed many to enter the High Speed market, the only private group in Europe. Today, after the Cattaneo e 2017 closed with excellent results (from the 300 million losses accumulated between 2013 and 2015 it has gone to 65 million profits in the last two years and turnover from 310 million in 2015 to 454 million last year), the group can present itself for the examination of investors. For the Treasury, in the perennial search for maxi-revenues to stem the mountain of public debt, FS is one of the last jewels to offer. Without recalling all the stages, first it was thought to sell the holding then the agreement was found on the sale of a share of Frecce and Intercity (at least 30%), thus bypassing the issue of keeping the network in public hands .
And so if 2015 was the year of Poste Italiane's IPO, 2016 that of Enav, 2017 should have been that of FS, but neither will 2018, by admission of its top management (and despite the change in Trenitalia asked Barbara Morgante just to facilitate - it was said - the timing of the operation), in a progressive slip which is now looking to 2019. As if privatization were just a way to finance itself. There are reasons of transparency, first of all. But also business to consider. And Luca di Montezemolo clarified it very well in a interview with Reuters: Italo aims to export its model to other European countries, such as Spain, France and Germany. "There is a boom in the train market in Italy, we are on the eve of the opening of the European market... this is the right time" to go on the market. And again: "In the coming years, trains will be extremely important in Europe and our business model can be exported very easily elsewhere," he added. "We won't be the ones to fight the battle, we will be a minority shareholder... but they can save time, avoid our mistakes and we can have synergies tomorrow", is Montezemolo's conclusion. The European Union – it is worth remembering – plans to open the railway networks to competition and create a single market starting from 2020, making tenders compulsory and removing the last structural and technical barriers to cross-border services. It certainly won't be a simple battle, giants like Deutsche Bahn in Germany or SNCF in France won't stand by and watch. But Italo has managed to steal about a third of the turnover from FS in the richest segment (the public group has a share of about 65%) and to stir up the competition in Italy. It expects to offer know-how and to qualify as a partner for local operators, it will be up to them to lead the lunge. Quoting also serves this purpose. And Fs?
