A “carnival-cum-horror-show”, defined it the Guardian. Halfway between the ridiculous and the horrendous, Donald Trump continues its climb to the Republican nomination to stand in the presidential elections in November: the latest scandalous declaration, in chronological order, is that according to which "women who resort to abortion should be punished". The Republican front-runner then acknowledged that he "expressed himself badly", after the bipartisan condemnation and the indignation of majority public opinion.
Today we vote only in Wisconsin, a quiet stage approaching the July convention which is worth a total of 42 delegates, most of which to be assigned to the winner: the 70-year-old tycoon is currently leading the race with 735 delegates won, against 461 for his opponent Ted Cruz. You win at 1.237: if you reach that quota, no one will be able to deny the man who is embarrassing the most influential country on the planet from playing the challenge for the White House. More than today, where there is relatively little at stake, the real game will take place from mid-month onwards: on the 19th we vote in the state of New York, where Trump is given a great rise in support, and the following week in five states on the East Coast, especially in Pennsylvania. After that, Trump would have the road practically paved until the decisive vote in California on June 7 (that day there will also be votes in New Jersey and New Mexico, a state along whose border the Republican candidate would like to erect a wall to isolate it from Mexico).
The New York Times called it a “zombie-candidate”: dead (in the unwelcome sense, repudiated by his own party) but unstoppable, just like the living dead. But the same US newspaper explains how Trump may still not win: "When Republican voters vote in the primaries, they are voting to elect the delegates who will then elect the candidate for president at the July convention", explains the NYT, recalling however that each State has its own regulation regarding the constraint of this vote, and above all that in principle only in the first two votes (in some cases only in the first) the delegate is bound to the candidate from whose list he was elected. "Later, if the majority of 1.237 delegates is not reached, everyone is free to cast a different vote": and since only in some states are the delegates chosen directly by Trump (this is the case in California but not in an important state like Texas , for example), and in others they are instead included in a list decided by the party, it is almost certain that the Republican establishment, from the third vote onwards, suggests to its delegates to divert the vote to the one who ends up closest to Trump at the end of the primaries (at the moment it's Cruz, but he could come back John Kasich).
A choice that the delegates of the candidates who withdrew will also be able to make, such as Marco Rubio, which brings as many as 171 as a dowry: this is how it works, for example, in Alabama. In other states, such as Pennsylvania (where there is still a vote), delegates are even free to choose their vote from the very first ballot. However, there is a further unknown: with a decision that can be taken by a simple majority of the delegates, as long as before the convention begins, the rules described above can be changed. For or against Trump, the majority will decide. At the moment, however, the Republican electoral campaign boils down to this: Cruz is not doing much to stem the tsunami unleashed by the "Berlusconi of America" (who, however, in certain statements, is more reminiscent of the populism of Salvini or Grillo), so much it is true that the Economist has already panned it as a “false hope, a Texan creep who is squandering a great opportunity”.
Democrats – The clash on the democratic front also comes to life, where, however, there are no zombies to be killed but content is heatedly discussed. The socialist Bernie Sanders continues to have appeal and remains in full swing for the nomination, even if the former First Lady and former Secretary of State in Obama's first term is always in the lead, Hillary Clinton: the abacus currently says 1.243 to 980 (you win at 2.383). On the eve of the vote in Wisconsin there is much talk of industry and employment: "The disastrous trade policies - attacked Sanders, who in view of the key vote in New York spoke to a crowd of 20.000 people in the Bronx -, in particular NAFTA (the North American Free Trade Agreement , or free trade with Canada and Mexico, ed), and relations with Chinese competitors managed in this way have led to the closure of 60.000 factories in the country and the loss of 4,7 million jobs in industry since 2001 : 113.000 of those jobs were lost in Wisconsin alone.” State of manufacturing midwest, Wisconsin has a combined population of less than 6 million and is famous for its beer production.
In this, as in most of the Northern states, with a white majority population and a more industrial vocation, the consensus for Sanders exceeds that of Hillary, who instead dominated in the Southern States, which have a higher percentage of African-Americans and Latinos and who see in the ex's wife President Clinton continuity with Obama, the first black president in history and darling of minorities. One of the themes of this final rush is precisely this: in the southern states there was voting almost everywhere, in the northern ones a little less, and a good part of the West Coast, where the younger, educated population could still favor Sanders, who just in March set his own campaign fundraising record: $44 million, "of which zero from oil lobbies," he proudly announced, recalling that his opponent with the "strong powers of fossil energy" received almost 2 million dollars.
Il revival of the industry and employment is therefore the hottest topic on the table: long gone are the days when the United States exported the concept of middle class and social equality. The economy of Wall Street and Silicon Valley has created fortunes for very few and disrupted the business fabric of the country, say the leading contemporary economists. Clinton, to respond to the trillion Sanders plan over five years to modernize infrastructure and create 13 million jobs, responded with a more moderate plan of 10 billion. To finance them, the former has in mind a merciless fight against evasion and ai tax havens (just Sunday the investigation was published Panama Papers), as well as higher taxation on the highest incomes and on financial income, while the second would like first of all to keep the companies that would like to relocate in America, making the latter lose the tax breaks they should be entitled to.
Another topic being debated these days is one of the strong points of the socialist challenger: free college. This battle of civilizations, which would like to remake America the land of great opportunities precisely in the historical period that has seen the greatest growth in economic and social inequalities, is also relaunched by Hillary: "We must offer quality training at affordable and affordable prices of everyone, without students being forced to go into debt to enroll in college,” wrote the former New York state senator yesterday on her Twitter profile. Sanders instead has a $75 billion plan: “It's not such a radical idea – he said -. Germany itself eliminated tuition fees last year because it noticed that the 1.300-euro annual tuition discouraged many students from enrolling. Chile is about to do the same, not to mention the Scandinavian countries".
Northern Europe is often the benchmark of socialism sandersian, which young people like for this very reason: it does not recall the failures of the Soviet Union or even the dictatorial Chinese economy, but the "prosperous and egalitarian Scandinavian democracies", commented a few months ago The Washington Post. “Actually, someone is already doing it in the States too: I'm thinking of the University of California or that of the city of New York, where for decades fees have been very affordable. We must guarantee this right everywhere, to the most deserving students”. A socialist or a woman in the White House: it would be a first time in any case.
