Apple, Pope Francis, the Mexicans. That is the best-selling smartphones in the States, the spiritual leader of a large part of the Catholic electorate and Latinos, which represent almost 20% of the US population, and of which 64% are originally from Mexico, the country that Donald Trump would like to insulate with a wall. The Republican candidate is pitting himself against everyone but apparently it doesn't matter, on the contrary: his consensus continues to grow inexorably and the former outsider presents himself to the Super Tuesday today, the decisive stage of the presidential primaries in which you vote in 11 states at the same time, practically as a favorite.
So far, for the Republican primaries (as well as for the Democratic ones) there have been votes in 4 states and the unscrupulous tycoon, after having fought well in Iowa, has won in the last three rounds, with a growing consensus that the same The Economist called it 'almost unstoppable'. Now Trump is in the lead with 87 delegates already won (1.237 are needed to win), against only 17 of the former favorite Ted Cruz and 16 of the young Marco Rubio. Two Latin names, but despite this, Trump conquers the Latin community. “In Nevada – the Economist has always observed – he won 44% of the votes Latinoswhich is puzzling in light of the hurtful claims he's made about Mexicans. But her success can be explained by her perceived ability to create jobs and make money: she represents the culture of success through hard work, which appeals to entrepreneurial immigrants. And then it seems that Trump will find compromises for his more uncompromising immigration policies, once in power”.
The tycoon's extremist ideas aren't limited to Mexico and immigration issues. Up two days ago Twitter Trump has come to quote Mussolini ("Better a day as a lion than a hundred years as a sheep") then claiming, to justify himself, that he liked the specific phrase and not necessarily the political thought of the Italian Duce. During the last fiery Republican Congress, Trump even received from his opponents allegations of ties to the Klu Klux Klan and the Mafia. Having received the embarrassing endorsement of David Duke, former head of the sect infamous for having persecuted the black population for decades, the Republican candidate has in fact hesitated to clearly distance himself from it. So much so that the Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders, also particularly sensitive to these issues for generational reasons, immediately commented on his Facebook wall: "The first black president in history cannot be succeeded by a hatemonger (a cartoon character deliberately reminiscent of Adolf Hitler, ed) who refuses to condemn the KKK”. The American press has also reported the case of a certain Fred Trump (apparently just the same name as Trump's father) arrested in Jamaica in 1927 for episodes of racial violence.
They don't concern racial hatred but the accusations of links, for example, with the S&A Construction, whose owner was, in the 80s at the time of the deal, Anthony "Fat Tony" Salerno, mafia boss of the Genoese clan now sentenced to 100 years in prison. However, all this is by no means disturbing the electorate: “For many Republicans – significantly commented a veteran of Mitt Romney, the last challenger of the Grand Old Party in the election of the Obama-bis – Trump is more than a political choice. It's a litmus paper to test pulse and character”. As if to say: deep America, in these times of crisis and war, needs a strong man. In perfect line with the wave of populism – of various kinds – that hasn't spared Western Europe either.
Today we vote in Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia and in all more than 600 delegates are assigned for the Republican Congress: if Trump were to grab a lot of them, it would be a big boost in view of the victory that will be awarded in June. Meanwhile, the 70-year-old entrepreneur is already the king of social media: up Facebook (and also on Twitter) has more than 6 million followers, more than Clinton and Sanders combined and incomparable with Rubio's 2 million and Cruz's 1,3. The only one who stands up to him, speaking of discrimination, is Ben Carson, the only black candidate of this round: for him 5 million followers but a huge disappointment at the polls, where he has so far collected the pittance of 4 delegates, even one less than the almost unknown John Kasich, governor of Ohio followed by less than 200 thousand people on Facebook.
Democrats – On the democratic front, however, the challenge is reduced to two candidates, with the leadership of Hillary Clinton who for a moment wavered in the face of the phenomenon Bernie Sanders, but which now seems to be back on track. After losing in the second stage in New Hampshire, the former First Lady got back on track by winning appointments in Nevada and South Carolina, with a growing consensus trend. In particular, in the last round in South Carolina Clinton won with 73% of the preferences, improving 54% of her in Nevada and also, as the The Washington Post, “the 59% with which Obama defeated her in 2008”. "Hillary benefits - the US newspaper explains - is the support of minorities: not only the black population, which has always been close, but now also the Latinos”, which will be decisive for winning in Texas, where the Democratic primary assigns 222 delegates out of the total 859 of this Super Tuesday, and out of the overall 2.123 that will be assigned in the entire month of March, the crucial month of the campaign. Hillary also counts on the support of the older segment of the population: although in this segment her percentage advantage over Sanders is not as clear as the specular one of the socialist in the younger segment (where he has come to conquer 84% of the electorate), in numerical terms is certainly more profitable.
“Young people love Sanders but they won't go to vote – always reminds the Washington Post -: although the under 30 group represents a higher percentage of the population than the over 65 group, in 2012 less than 40% of voters aged 18-24 went to vote, against almost 70% of the over 65s (and 64% of the 46-64 age group)". Not good news for the senator from Vermont, who had centered his electoral program on young people, whose warhorses were precisely thefree enrollment in colleges and a more equitable healthcare system, beyond Obamacare. "Both unsustainable", however ruled part of the US press, ending up by pulling the sprint to Hillary Clinton, who at the moment has a large advantage by 544 delegates against 85 (winning at 2.383), also considering the decisive contribution of super delegates, or of those members of the Democratic party who have already chosen, regardless of the outcome of the primaries, who to support (the so-called establishment, who overwhelmingly opted for Clinton).
In the decisive Super Tuesday round, the polls see Hillary as the favorite in six out of 11 states, including the crucial Texas and the other two that assign more delegates: the Georgia (which has 30% of the population of the black race) with 102 and the Virginia with 95. And in general in the southern states, where there is a higher percentage of ethnic minorities. Sanders, who however continues to have an image more appreciated by young people ("Free from the prejudices of the Cold War - writes the Washington Post - they appreciate his socialism, which in a modern version recalls the prosperous and egalitarian Scandinavian models"), should instead win in five states including the Massachusetts, the Kennedy fiefdom, and the Vermont, where he was elected senator but which assigns only 16 delegates. In general, Sanders is favored in the states further north, with a white majority and a more industrial vocation, where the “working-class voters”. That category of voters who "no longer see capitalism as such a winning and untouchable model: indeed, a recent survey conducted by YouGov - writes the WP - revealed that 43% of US under 30s have a positive opinion of socialism, while only 32% think equally well about capitalism”.
If the predictions are respected, the wife of the former president of the 90s will score a decisive push towards the final victory. The challenge of social media is currently in a draw: Sanders wins on Facebook (3 million followers against 2,5 of his opponent), while on Twitter Hillary's profile dominates, over which however the ghost of her cumbersome husband Bill looms, who has almost the same followers as her (over 5 million), despite being relatively little exposed in this campaign.
