Having overcome the shock of Brexit and the turbulence linked to the stress tests on European banks, Piazza Affari should once again see peace of mind over the next six months. This is what emerges from the July survey conducted by Assiom Forex in collaboration with Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor Plus, which was attended by 98 financial market operators.
“After Brexit has been digested – commented the president of Assiom Forex, Massimiliano Sinagra – they confirm that they have an even more positive view on the evolution of the Italian stock market (from 49% to 55%), despite the heavy declines of the last days of the financial sector”.
OPTIMISTIC
According to 55% of the operators, the markets will mark increases in the next six months: for 46% of those who took part in the survey, the increase will be between 3% and 10% while for 9% the increase will exceed 10 %.
STABLE FORECASTS
The percentage of those who see stable markets drops to 28%, a definition that encompasses the possibility of both upward and downward variations within 3%.
PESSIMISTS
Only for 17% of the operators are further discounts to be taken into account: for 12% of them the discounts will be between 3 and 10% while for 5% more substantial losses cannot be excluded.
BANKS
The impact that the banking sector will have on the performance of the Stock Exchange in the coming months does not seem to alarm the market excessively: 62% of operators believe that once the obstacle of the stress tests has been overcome and the Brexit scenario has been well metabolized for now, bank stocks should begin to contribute positively to the performance of the price list.
According to this clear majority, the involvement of the Atlante fund in the Npl securitization process and an attitude of greater cooperation on the part of Brussels should allow for a change of course. According to the remaining 38% of operators, however, the Npl problem is too big and the tools in the field are not yet sufficient.
EURO
On the exchange rate front, 44% of operators who took part in the survey believe that the euro will remain stable against the US currency over the next six months, while 33% believe that the European currency could register a rise, which 2% may be sensitive.
SPREAD
As far as the spread is concerned, 44% of operators believe that the spread will remain substantially in the current range, while for 38% of operators a stable overshoot of between 125 and 150 points is possible and for a further 8% the spread could explode over 150 points.
