“Too close to call”: too close to declare a winner. The American election eve is all about uncertainty: the polls see the outgoing president Barack Obama with a slight advantage, supported also by the not a little influential statements of the mayor of New York Bloomberg and by the approval of 8 out of 10 citizens for the management emergency Sandy, but challenger Mitt Romney does not give up.
And especially, the Republican candidate still believes he can make it in Ohio and Pennsylvania, two of the key states. In fact, the two pretenders to the White House need the fateful 270 electors, to be conquered in the 51 States of the Union: in 11 of these, which represent 146 electors (the so-called "toss-up States"), the situation is essentially balanced . Obama has a lead of between 0,6 and 4,2 percentage points in eight of these (Ohio, New Hampshire, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada), while Romney seems to win by 0,3-3,8 % in Florida, Virginia and North Carolina.
But in reality, even in Ohio the Mormon candidate is convinced that he can do it, and in any case recovering the 20 big voters of Pennsylvania, as they expect to be able to do from the Republican headquarters, Mitt could reach the decisive threshold of 270 votes in the Assembly. As? Directing all efforts at the end of the electoral campaign on the influential Eastern State, neglected for months as it has always been a democratic stronghold.
But the stronghold would now seem to be creaking, as admitted by Obama himself, who acknowledged a certain decline in enthusiasm at a recent rally in a territory where in 2008 the part of the black, Hispanic, female and youth population had expressed a real plebiscite against the current president. But now the white part of the electorate is becoming more and more threatening, which Romney was able to gather over the weekend in two meetings of 20 participants, stuff never seen in the state of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. In fact, while Obama sentiment seems to prevail in the two big cities, in the west, support for Romney is growing among conservative workers, also dragged along by movements such as the Tea Party.
See the graph above Le Figaro
