As of today, that would be a draw. After so many overtakings and counter-overtakings, which first saw Hollande go on the run, then Sarkozy recover, and recently the socialist candidate regain the upper hand (even in the projections for the now certain second round), the polls now show the two main pretenders to the office of President of the French Republic exactly matched.
According to the most recent survey, released this morning by Ipsos/Business, the outgoing president Nicolas Sarkozy and the challenger (and favourite) François Hollande, both lost a few percentage points of approval compared to the latest projections, seeing the 27% of voting intentions in the first round for each. In the second round, however, according to Le Monde, the candidate of the left would be creating a vacuum: 56% against 44% of the last tenant of the Elysée.
The third wheel is confirmed to be neither the centrist Bayrou (who slackly focuses on the undecided), firm at around 10% of the voting intentions, nor the far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon (who went beyond Hollande's proposal, already considered disproportionate by many, to tax incomes over one million at 75%: 100% tax rate over 350 euros and pension at 60 years!), stable at a surprising 14,5%: instead it is the daughter of art Marine Le Pen, candidate of the far-right Front National, who - as her father Jean-Marie did several times - embarrassed France with 15,5% of the consents currently declared. This time however, the "risk" of a sensational promotion to the second round appears to have been conveniently thwarted: it will be Sarko-Hollande, at the last gasp.
But how did France wake up five days after the vote? First, with a couple of interviews that cause discussion. Very strong the one released yesterday by François Hollande at the Financial Times, which suggests, in the increasingly probable case of a changing of the guard in Paris, one pitched confrontation between the new left-wing government and the European Central Bank, accused by Hollande of not intervening forcefully enough to avoid Greece's default. The socialist leader also recalled the atmosphere that accompanied the historic triumph of François Mitterand in 1981, then re-elected seven years later: Hollande feels ready to repeat that exploit and become the second socialist president in the history of the fifth French Republic. His charisma is not yet that of the former president of the same name, but already sufficient to win over his successor.
Indeed, in an interview with Le Parisien, Jean-Luc Barré, biographer of Jacques Chirac (right-wing president from 1995 to 2007 and co-founder in 2002 with Sarkozy of the UMP party), stated that the former head of state has already decided that he will "betray" his protégé and vote for Hollande.
To certify that this is not the best moment of Sarko's electoral campaign are then the allegations of cooperation with Libya's then dictator Muhammar Gaddafi landed on outgoing president's head in Anne Lauvergeon's truth-book, former number one of the transalpine nuclear group Areva. Lauvergeon accuses Sarkozy of having signed a nuclear collaboration agreement in 2007 and of having tried to sell one or more plants to the Libyan colonel for the sum of two billion euros. All of this, as per the impeccable pre-election script, was promptly denied by the person concerned.
The argument however shouldn't shock the average French electorate: the challenge, as has been known for months now, is played out entirely on the crisis, on work and above all on the international role of France. From this point of view, the center-right candidate has indirectly replied on France Inter to Hollande's tough stance on the ECB: Sarko has now decided to play the role of moderator, calling for a "serene dialogue" with the continental bank. So while the left is clamoring to review the Fiscal Compact, Sarkozy, who signed that pact, can only limit himself to hoping for a more flexible application.
But which of the two is best interpreting the sentiment of the French? According to the numbers, it should be Hollande's steadfastness that rides the wave of public opinion, which is confirmed by a fact: the two outsiders, Le Pen and Mélenchon, are both strongly anti-European (not to mention Euro-phobic) and combine 30% of voting intentions in polls. Almost one French out of three is therefore hostile to Europe. Could this be the key to sitting at the Elysium?
In the meantime, one thing is certain: the question closely concerns Italy, which will thus be able to find an ally against the intransigence of the Bundesbank. In fact, whoever wins the elections, France is no longer Berlin's strong shoulder, and its crisis is increasingly distancing it from Brandenburg to bring it closer to the winds of recession in the Mediterranean. After losing triple A in January, the spread between transalpine and German government bonds, which hovered around parity for almost all of 2011, is now consistently over 120 basis points. All the more reason to take the path of rigor, however asking for time and clemency from the former iron ally. The risk, however, is that in the event of a socialist victory, Germany will stiffen even more.
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