She hasn't even reached the ballot, but she is still holding the court. Marine Le Pen, 43 years old, daughter of Jean-Marie who already repeatedly made France discuss (and tremble), is literally stealing the show from the two "finalists" of the French presidential elections, the socialist François Hollande (leading in the first round and in the polls for the second) and the outgoing president Nicolas Sarkozy.
According to logic, it is precisely to the latter that the 17,9% of votes collected by the Front National should converge (a record for the party, even better than Papa in 2002). But logic is often debunked. Le Pen holds the vote of one French out of five and this, in addition to appealing to the two candidates – who by grabbing at least part of that consensus could decisively shift the balance - also worries someone outside France . Like the markets, which are reacting very badly to this situation, or, giving names and surnames, that one Angela Merkel who said she was "concerned by this extremist drift" and has publicly confirmed its full support for the companion of many European battles Sarkozy.
Instead, he often took a stand against the Chancellor Francois Hollande that, albeit in a more moderate and more constructive way than the Front National or Mélenchon's extreme left, it is picking up some of that anti-Europeanism creeping among the French population. Is it him, surprisingly, who benefits from Le Pen's package of votes? That the French nationalists prefer to reward him rather than give the vote to Sarko who has always been a friend of Germany and Europe?
Le Figaro, to try to see clearly, launched a survey among its readers (notoriously right-handed): only 62,5% of them said the leader of the Front National should launch an appeal to vote for the outgoing president in the second round. 37,5% instead think not: presumably, because they themselves would not vote for Sarko. However, the doubt remains whether that electorate – so decisive – will go so far as to vote for the left.
In any case, Le Pen is stalling for now: she has already said that he will not give voting indications before May 3, three days before the runoff. And it is still very probable that he will recommend abstention or a blank ballot. In the meantime, while Sarkozy is alone (albeit confident: "We're playing it, we have good chances", he said), his rival Hollande, despite the somewhat disappointing advantage compared to the predictions of the eve, can already count on some reliable help. Like those of Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Eva Joly, who together account for a good 13%. Then remains the enigma Bayrou, courted in every way by the entourage of the last tenant of the Elysée (Alain Juppè also said: "He would be a perfect prime minister") and whose electorate is difficult to position, as often happens with centrist candidates. After having fought Sarkozy for five years, and having publicly praised the socialist leader, Bayrou no longer seems so convinced. He too will dissolve the reserve only on May 3: 9% of voters in the first round are up for grabs, not exactly a few.
Meanwhile TNS-Sofres conducted an interesting sociological research on last Sunday's vote. The study shows, as already highlighted by some surveys, that Hollande has made inroads above all in the middle class and in the young people under 35, where he obtained 25% of the preferences against 21% of Sarkozy and once again 20% of Le Pen. However, the outgoing president is the favorite of the over 65s, who 43% voted for him (only 23% for Hollande and 11% for the far right), and he confirmed himself as a great "seducer": according to TNS-Sofres almost one in three women (32% ) chose him, against 28% of the candidate of the left. However, he wins 29%-23% among the male electorate, where Le Pen and Mélenchon also did better.
As far as social classes are concerned, the picture is fairly clear-cut: the UMP leader represents the highest income and professional categories (particularly entrepreneurs and freelancers), who choose him at 32%, Hollande has the most transversal electorate with the best result among the middle classes, while Le Pen conquers one voter out of three among the "poor" classes and 50% among citizens without a degree. Note how the daughter of art has then breakthrough in the working class, which preferred her (29%) to the far-left candidate Mélenchon, who with 12% did even worse than Sarkozy (18%).
Finally, the capital has clearly turned red: Paris, governed by the leftist mayor Bertrand Delanoe, and almost all of its hinterland rallied around François Hollande (consensus between 34 and 38%), rejecting Sarkozy and not not even taking Le Pen into consideration (6%). In Ile-de-France alone, the socialist leader garnered nearly a million votes, compared to Sarko's 800. But deep France, as we know, resides in the countryside, where the highest consensus for Le Pen lurks among woods and paths. Paris is well worth a mass, but you have to get there first.
