And the winner is…? The answer, namely the winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics 2011, will be unveiled, as usual in the prestigious hall of the Royal Academy of Music in Stockholm, Monday October 10.
The prize, which is awarded by the Bank of Sweden, arrives this year atedition number 42 (the one for the economy was established only in 1969, while the others in 1901). Only once has it been won by an Italian, in 85 by Franco Modigliani, while it has almost always been the preserve of US professors and experts. And, according to the prediction of Wall Street Journal, it will be like this again this year.
La list of favorites according to the WSJ it is based in part on the usual annual wager made by the students of Harvard. In this special ranking, absolutely playful even if very passionate and competent, the initiate number 1 turns out to be Alvin Roth, a professor right at the university where the survey took place. Obligatory favourite, the gossips would say, as voted by his own students. But it should also be remembered that Roth is the pioneer of the so-called market design, as well as an atypical professor, as the portrait drawn up of him by Forbes magazine describes him: one who devoted little to theory and a great deal to practice, to the concrete application of his ideas.
Another candidate is Robert Shiller, professor a Yale, also American. Founder of “behavioral finance”, is famous for having highlighted the irrationality of stock markets in the 80s, changes in which do not correspond to expected dividends. What more current topic, given the stock market crisis in recent months. Even if the Nobel prize committee always wants to clarify: current events do not determine the choice of the prize winner.
Third and last name assumed by Harvard students is that of Halbert White, of the University of San Diego, in California. He is the inventor of statistical tools and models used since the 70s.
White is the only one of the three who is also mentioned by one "official" forecast, the one drawn up by Thomson-Reuters, based on four criteria: number of citations, number of discoveries, awards and recognitions in the world of research.
Five names emerge from this study: in addition to the aforementioned White, Douglas Diamond, expert in liquidity crises and financial intermediation; Anne Krueger, former IMF managing director who managed the post-Lehman Brothers bankruptcy crisis; Gordon Tullock who devoted himself to studies on public debt; And Jerry Hausman from MIT.
Il Wall Street Journal he then adds other names, more or less known, but with a single common denominator: all of US nationality. Except for one, actually: the intruder is the Frenchman Jean Tirole, author of studies on the industrial economy, in particular on business strategy and competition. In addition to not being American, however, Tirole would also be a rather young winner, as he himself says jokingly: "I'm only 58 years old". And he, like the young people, also Harvard students, focuses on Shiller.
