The signal that the fever is always lurking came in the middle of a sleepy and holiday session, on the eve of the last summer weekend. Yes, because in seven days operators from all over the world, regardless of the various time zones, will be tuned to Jackson Hole, Wyoming, land of bears and deer, where Ben Bernanke will illustrate the Federal Reserve's strategies for the autumn and beyond . In the meantime, the financial markets archive with a sigh of relief the best August for five years now.
But there are few illusions about the near future, as it demonstrates the leap forward in the spread of Italian BTPs, from 408 to 433 basis points in a few minutes, after the news spread around noon that Spain was preparing to request the intervention of the bailout fund. The rumor soon subsided, but the spread didn't. Proof that operators have very little faith in the future of Euroland. And on the future of Italy in particular.
Very few question the commitment of the Monti government or the country's response to a ferocious cure, but this is not enough to move the skeptics. As Andrew Balls of Pimco, one of the lieutenants of the legendary Bill Gross, told Corriere della Sera, “It is impossible to stabilize debt with yields on ten-year BTPs at 5,5-6% and nominal GDP growth, including inflation, practically at zero. It's math".
In a much more sanguine way, Bill Gross himself expressed himself thus in the Financial Times: “Do you know what the various Hollandes, Merkels and so on want from you, dear investors? They want your money. They want you, deluded by plans, strategies and various agreements, to put your money in place of theirs. But let's be serious: it's already difficult to think that the Italian debt is sustainable, with these growth rates, indeed of the economy's decline, with interest at 4 percent. Let alone 6 percent”.
Thus speaks a gentleman who administers public and private debt financial products for 1820 billion dollars, or slightly less than the Italian public debt. A gentleman who, luckily for us, doesn't always get it right: Pimco had predicted the decline of the US public debt, under the debt ax. But since then, since the time of the relegation operated by S&P, US bonds have been booming. That said, Pimco's messages are hard to ignore:
1) the markets are no longer satisfied with chatter. Either Europe brings real money into the field, through the action of Mario Draghi, or it will continue to flee from the risk areas of the Eurozone;
2) the August truce held up thanks to the ECB's announcement of forthcoming purchases of Italian and Spanish two-year bonds. But the operation, if it is not supported by a broader strategy, risks being counterproductive. "If the ECB limited itself to buying short-term bonds – comments Balls – in reality it would be saying that it believes that there would be a credit risk on long-term bonds”;
3) in a recession, debt securities are less secure than real assets. It is no coincidence that for the last year Pimco's management has also included equity funds.
It is in this framework that Piazza Affari is preparing to experience the last 100 days of 2012: the rally in August made it possible, in practice, to eliminate the losses accumulated by the lists from March onwards. But the rebound has only partially compensated for the "gap" that separates the Italian stock exchange from the rest of Europe, as shown by the financial indicators. Take, for example, the case of Fiat which, despite yesterday's slip-up, it closed the last month with an increase of just over 14 per cent: the ratio between the Tev (Total Enterprise Value) and the Ebitda (gross operating margin), which measures company profitability, is approximately one third of the average of European competitors, including those that fare worse than Lingotto.
Woe to overestimating fundamental analysis in such an exasperated economic situation. But it is a fact that in the Italian Stock Exchange there is certainly no shortage of stories of restructuring, maybe just sketched out. This is, for example, the case of Monte Paschi, which has just launched an in-depth change operation, which will also cover the role of reference shareholder. Sure, the economy in recession doesn't offer room for generalized growth, but turnaround stories can be identified in three categories:
to the stocks with a strong export vocation, better if balanced between American and Asian markets. Particular attention should be paid to companies with a strong exposure to the Russian market, which is opening up to the WTO.
b) The groups undergoing restructuring, with an eye to those who will be able to sell the "no core" assets with a capital gain on the book values. As demonstrated by the story of Prelios and Risanamento. This could be the case of Generali, but the real bet at risk could be Fiat, either in the (unlikely) case of a sale of Alfa or in the (more concrete) eventuality that Sergio Marchionne manages to place an Italian plant in groups foreigners (Pomigliano to Mazda, in particular).
c) the (few) companies that will immediately benefit from the opening of construction sites for major works, the launch of the digital agenda and what the government can decide in a short time.
In short, the next few months will be turbulent but not without opportunities. To be approached with extreme caution, given the impressive amount of unknowns at the end of the leap year, the sixth of the great crisis. It is inevitable to remain liquid and "short", limiting exits to a limited portion of the portfolio. Aware that a large part of the future of the eurozone is played out in September. The decision of the German Consulta on 12 September on the legitimacy of the ESM will be decisive, to which Merkel will provide 190 billion out of the 700 available to the ECB. It is likely that the ECB will reveal its anti-spread strategy only after the Karlhsrue sentence, in the vicinity of a decision (or yet another postponement) on Greece. In the midst, easy to predict, of numerous opposing sorties of hawks and doves in flight a few months before the German elections. It is useless to have any illusions: it will be a high-risk navigation also because the reduction of the debt stock will take many years even in the presence of a monetization which in the end will prove to be rather aggressive.
There will not only be structural problems, but also issues of the political situation. The approach of the elections will increase the temptation in Germany to say and do something again hostile to the big debtors. In America, the fiscal cliff is approaching in a terrible climate of low blows among the contenders for the White House who have invested Ben Benanke himself. Alarming news is arriving from China on the gravity of the current recession which will soon combine with the crucial phase of alliances in view of the CPC congress.
In this context, perhaps, the winner could prove to be gold, which has shown signs of great vitality in recent weeks. The quantum leap in monetary policies and the approaching end of the year, traditionally favorable, could restore at least part of its luster
