For the rescue of Veneto Bank and People of Vicenza around 6,4 billion euros could be needed. To say so would be the new estimate of the ECB, reported by Bloomberg, according to which i 5 billion originally planned to save the two Venetian institutes they would no longer be enough in the light of the new bank accounts.
A new account that mars, at least in part, the glimmer of light that opened up after the four-way meeting that took place yesterday in Brussels between the EU Antitrust, the Supervision of the ECB, the Treasury and the Bank of Italy. At the end of the meeting, deemed satisfactory by all, a spokesman for the European Commission said that a "solution is possible in the coming weeks" for the recapitalization of the two Veneto banks. Naturally we still need to find the balance between the different needs but at least we can see a light at the end of the tunnel.
The fact that at the Brussels meeting he also took the European supervision of the ECB suggests that Frankfurt is moving towards a declaration of solvency of the two banks, which is preliminary to the green light for the capital increase and the entry of the Treasury as a solution for the rescue and to avoid the use of the bail-in, which would weigh on the shoulders of shareholders, bondholders and, ultimately, account holders over €100.
As the Venetian banks themselves have been repeating for days, time however is vital and very little is left to avoid the shipwreck because the losses of the two institutions are growing and are increasingly impressive. Yesterday Veneto Banca officially certified that it had lost a billion and a half in 2016, of which 1,3 for adjustments resulting from credit losses. A lower loss than that of Popolare di Vicenza (1,9 billion euros) but almost double that suffered the previous year, when the Montebelluna bank lost "only" 881 million.
Going back to the estimates revealed by the ECB, the bank's solvency – ie compliance with the capital minimums – is the fundamental condition required by the European central bank to assess the eligibility of a bank for state aid. The other condition concerns accessibility, ie the fact that the bank has sufficient private capital to cover the future losses already foreseen or foreseeable, remaining in any case above the 4,5% requested by the ECB. As has been said, constructive negotiations are going on to such an extent that the ECB has let the possibility of a positive solution filter within a few weeks.
The two Veneto banks have already received 3,5 billion from Atlante (including the emergency recapitalization of 2,5 billion in June). The Fund then ensured a further capital injection of 938 million in January pending the future capital increase.
