On the recapitalization of Popolare Vicenza and Veneto Banca, destined to marry, the Atlante Fund and the Treasury are facing each other. While the ECB's verdict on the size of the capital increase necessary to secure the new bank that will arise from the merger is expected today, the real puzzle to solve is who will put in the money. And the knot to untie concerns more Rome than Frankfurt. The increase will exceed 3 billion (5 billion according to rumors collected by the Financial Times) and it remains to be seen what thresholds will be defined with the European Central Bank but the point to be clarified concerns above all the public guarantee on the precautionary recapitalization which will inevitably also for the Veneto banks after the one already started for Mps.
Without this the Fondo Atlante is not in a position to hold the game. Today the Fund is the controlling shareholder with approximately 99% of the capital. However, it seems that pressure is growing – above all from the territories, where Governor Zaia is in the foreground of the game – for an intervention by the Treasury in the capital. But with what participation? The hypothesis of public control perhaps would not displease the governor of Veneto but would risk blocking the expected renewal of the two bankrupt banks entrusted to the management of Fabrizio Viola as a sign of discontinuity with the past. And yet there is no shortage of pressure to ease the push for change.
The match will be played on the value recognized to the shares of the old shareholders called to participate in the capital increase but also on the portion that Fonto Atlante (managed by Quaestio Sgr) will have to pay to remain the majority shareholder considering that the recapitalization will have a highly dilutive effect . If the Treasury, hypothetically, evaluates that the two banks are worth zero, Atlante would be forced to pay more than half of the amount requested by the ECB to keep his job. However, it is not said that the money left in cash (938 million already advanced and 1,7 billion still to be spent) is sufficient. Hence the pressure on the Treasury.
