From chicken in oil, through pasta and bread, it continues raise the price of food which in March rose by 2,1%, with double-digit growth (+10,9%) compared to March 2021. This is what thesurvey, conducted by Unioncamere with the collaboration of BMTI and REF Ricerche, on the basis of the surveys on the prices paid to the food industry by the central purchasing bodies of the large-scale distribution. And that's not all, because the worst is yet to come. The study, in fact, proposes a further escalation of inflation in the April-May two-month period, when we expect increases for the average of the 46 most consumed food products of +3,5% compared to the previous two-month period and growth on an annual basis that could reach +12,7%.
“In a scenario that already presented tensions due to multiple factors (energy, climate and health), the outbreak of war in Ukraine it has further pushed up the prices of food products”, underlines the president of Unioncamere, Andrea Prete. "A race that shows no sign of slowing down, to the detriment of the costs paid by businesses and household budgets".
Chickens, oil, pasta, bread: here are all the increases
Among the products that recorded higher increases in March than the previous month, fresh chicken takes first place, whose price increased by 4,3% due to a reduced offer in recent months due to avian flu and the increase in feed costs. It follows butter (+3,8%), marked by the reduction of availability at the continental level. As a result of the increases in raw material prices (durum wheat, soft wheat) and energy already underway in 2021, a sharp increase in prices was also recorded for cereal products and derivatives such as semolina pasta +3,7%, rice +3,7%, biscuits +3,6%, bread +3,4%.
“Inflation for the month of March, according to the preliminary data provided by the Central Purchasing Offices, undergoes a marked acceleration up to +10,9%, with the highest increases for chicken meat (+34,8%), in various seed oil (+30,5%), due to the shortage of sunflower oil supplies from the Black Sea (Russia and Ukraine are the two largest producers of sunflower oil in the world) and in semolina pasta (+22,5, XNUMX%)”, underlines the report.
Strong increases in the coming months for pasta, bread and butter
The prospects for the coming months are not encouraging. Based on the indications provided by the Large-Scale Purchasing Offices, significant increases should also be recorded for the April-May two-month period. On average, for the 46 food products monitored, the increase stood at +3,5%. Among the foodstuffs most affected, there are still semolina pasta (+6,6%) and bread (+6,5%) and butter (+5,6%).
"The expected inflation for food industry products purchased by the Large-Scale Purchasing Centers shows no sign of slowing down, and is projected towards +12,7% in the April-May two-month period”, underlines the study, according to which the greatest accelerations are expected from chicken meat (+33,3%), various seed oil (+31,6%) and semolina pasta (+26,8 %). The expected increases in flours, cereals and derivative products are widespread and intense with soft wheat flour growing by +19,8% and rusks by +16,2%, driven by the tensions that persist in the international scenario. Also significant expected growth for rice (+16,2%), due to an available supply lower than the demand of the rice mills.
Broadening the time horizon, the advances collected on the prices paid to the food industry by the Purchasing Centers suggest a further acceleration of consumer food inflation in the summer months, towards values above 7% (for the average for 2022, the forecast is now +6,1%).
