Il Pnrr will generate a job application up to 375.000 units, of which the 79% in the private sector, equal to 2,1% of employees more than in 2019.
To estimate the impact of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan is one Bank of Italy study, which observes the demand for jobs generated by the 174 billion allocated to new interventions (of the total 235,6 billion). But it's about "down" estimates given that employment is not contemplated in the study in education and in Health, because in these sectors of the PA the degree of uncertainty is considered "high".
“The increase in employment will be greater in construction, but other smaller and larger segments are also affected technological intensity” says via Nazionale. Furthermore, he adds, “the increase in demand for labor would be marked highly qualified professionals with analytical skills, whose recruitment could be more difficult,” says the central bank.
Personal AAA wanted: from IT to construction
Precisely to develop the Pnrr projects, first of all 27.000 will be needed computer programmers more in Italy, equal to 7,59% compared to the level of 2019. But the lion's share will undoubtedly go to the construction, which include both construction be therespecialized engineering. In the peak year (2025) an additional 95.600 workers will be needed, equal on average to about 9% of the 2019 level, the highest change in absolute terms. Construction is the only sector that already in 2021 had largely exceeded the occupation of 2019 due to the substantial investments associated with tax incentives for the redevelopment of the housing stock.
Double-digit growth is also expected for the research and development with 16.600 new jobs concentrated in 2024 (15,16% of the pre-pandemic level)
A strong demand then concerns the sector of personnel Management with just over 30.000 jobs. The report also notes that by production of computer, electronics and optics the change (+12.000 employed) would be 12,78% of employment in 2019 and would represent a marked reversal of the trend compared to the trend observed between 2014 and 2019.
The fear of not having enough trained employees
In some sectors it may be more difficult to guarantee skill levels adapted to the demand generated by the Pnrr. In particular, says Bankitalia, in sectors such as the research and development and the production of computer, electrical and optical appliances. The job offer may not adapt in a timely manner due to the difficulty of receiving adequate training in the face of limited interventions over time. Even if the workforce were trained and absorbed by the production system, it would still have to be relocated once the interventions run out.
Invest in the training of the unemployed and in targeted migration policies
According to this analysis, part of the labor demand could be satisfied by drawing from the pool of unemployed, equal to 1,9 million in the third quarter of 2022, but among them almost 50% declare that they have not had a job for more than 12 months. “Bottlenecks could be more easily prevented through targeted training policies in sectors characterized by more rapidly assimilable skills, such as some construction sectors for example”, reads the Bank of Italy report. Migration policies aimed at attracting qualified personnel "could represent a priority channel for increasing the job offer".
