Air travel is much safer than it was 60 years ago. Especially in the USA and Europe, it is more likely to be killed by lightning than to die in a plane crash. On the other hand, flights to Africa and Asia are less safe. In the face of greater safety, however, claims for compensation are on the rise, driven by factors such as complex repairs or operational downtime.
A report by Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty (AGCS) draws a balance on the risks associated with air transport. According to the study, this year's aviation disasters contradict the long-term improvement in safety seen by the industry, which currently accounts for fewer than two deaths for every 100 million passengers on commercial flights. By way of comparison, during one of the first decades of the jet age (1962-1971) there were 133 deaths for every 100 million passengers.
However, aviation security management will be further tested in the future against a new set of potential risk scenarios, including the growing likelihood of cyber-attacks, increased reliance on automated systems and the anticipated growth of drones for commercial use, according to as stated in the AGCS "Global Aviation Security Study". The report, published in collaboration with Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, tracks the improvements made in aviation safety levels since the beginning of the jet age in 1952.
The factors behind safety
The study shows that in the last 60 years the skies have become much safer. Today it is estimated that in the United States and Europe, you are much more likely to be killed by lightning (1 in 10,5 million) than die in a plane crash (1 in 29 million). And this despite the growth of the sector, which this year expects a turnout of 3,3 billion passengers compared to just 106 million in 1960.
“Aviation safety has greatly improved thanks also to technology, navigation systems, engine refinements and design innovations, such as fail-safe design criteria and fly-by-wire control,” says Francesco Liverani, Head of Aviation Italy of AGCS. “At the same time, crew training and safety management standards have risen sharply.” New innovations, such as digital messaging communication systems that allow pilots and controllers to “text each other”, are further improving the aviation safety environment.”
The main causes of loss
Despite dramatic improvements in safety levels, the cost of claims is rising due to the widespread use of new materials in aircraft design as well as increasingly demanding regulations and increased liability litigation. “Today the number of fatalities or total losses are lower than in the past, but there are new types of risks and losses, such as complex repairs, damage to ground equipment or the risk of operational downtime, which further increase the exposure ,” explains Henning Haagen, Global Head of Aviation EMEA and Asia Pacific at AGCS. Rising fleet values and passenger numbers are forecast to push risk exposures past the $1 trillion mark by 2020, or possibly sooner.
In the analysis of large insurance claims worth more than 1,36 million dollars (1 million euros), plane crashes are, predictably, the main cause of loss in terms of number of claims generated (23%) and of consequent value (37%). However, still in terms of number, almost as many compensation claims are related to the provision of ground handling services (18%), while 16% refer to a mechanical breakdown.
Regional differences in safety
While North America and Europe have the best safety standards in commercial aviation, Africa has the worst results. In 2012, 88% of global aviation fatalities occurred in Africa (45%) and Asia (43%). Currently, Africa uses the highest percentage of second generation aircraft, equal to over 50% of the total fleet analysed. Upgrading the aircraft fleet is one of the safety initiatives that have decreased the global accident rate. In parts of Africa, safety and training standards are comparable to those that existed 50 years ago in Europe or the United States.
Man against machine
In commercial aviation it is estimated that 70% of fatal accidents are related to human error, particularly pilot fatigue. Initiatives such as crew resource management and the automated cockpit have improved safety levels, but automation can also have a downside. Many incidents have raised the question that pilots rely too heavily on automation in the cockpit. “More attention needs to be paid to continuing education for pilots flying with and without automation. Basic pilot skills remain essential to safely operate any aircraft, especially if for whatever reason automation is not available,” says Sébastien Saillard, Head of Aviation Claims at AGCS.
However, improved levels of safety also mean that a large proportion of airline personnel have never been involved in a serious accident. This lack of experience is one of the biggest problems in emergency response preparedness.
Future challenges
New scenarios of potential losses are emerging, such as the growing likelihood of cyber-attacks, the expected increase in the use of drones (remotely piloted aircraft or UAVs) in the commercial sector, the estimated future shortage of qualified personnel, including pilots, and the prospect of more turmoil from climate change. In particular, there is growing concern about cyber attacks. “New generation aircraft are highly exposed to cybercrime due to the massive use of data networks, computerized onboard systems and navigation systems. Data breaches and cyber attacks are perceived as increasing risks,” explains Ludovic Arnoux, Global Head of Aviation Risk Consulting at AGCS.
