We are getting older and having fewer and fewer children. A trend that does not only concern Italy, but which affects most of the developed countries of the world.
In a recent report, the UN estimated that 12,7 percent of the world's population is over 60 years old. In 1980 they were 8,5%. It is easy to understand how the trend is growing and will continue to rise in the near future. In fact, according to the same forecasts, in 2030 the over 60s will be over 16% of the world population.
Simona Costagli, in a Focus Bnl entitled “Bye bye baby. Fertility and aging after the Great Recession,” also notes another worrying trend:
The increase in longevity worldwide has been accompanied by a general decline in fertility from 5 children per woman on average between 1950 and 1955 to about 2,5 between 2010 and 2015. Today 46% of the world's population lives in countries where the fertility rate is lower than the replacement rate (indicatively equal to 2,1 children per woman); the percentage is expected to reach 67 by 2030.
The financial crisis and the global recession experienced in the last 10 years have contributed significantly to the development of both phenomena with an impact on fertility and migration. In his analysis, Costagli takes Greece and Italy as an example:
In Greece, the post-crisis generation is the smallest since the second post-war period due to a collapse in the fertility rate and migration. In Italy, the reduction in the absolute number of births had been foreseen for some time, but the drop in births was faster than expected, above all due to the acceleration suffered after the economic crisis that began in 2008.
According to the data the average number of children per woman in our country it fell to 1,32. At a geographical level there is a strong differentiation between the North – where the average is 1,37 children per woman – and the South, stuck at 1,29. In parallel, Istat certified a slight reduction in mortality for 2018: 10,5 individuals who died per thousand residents from 10,7 in 2017. Costagli explains again:
The decline in mortality has led to a significant increase in life expectancy from 66,5 years in 1950-55 to 83,26 in 2015-20, one of the highest values in the world, after that of Japan, Switzerland, Spain and Singapore. The over 65s, in particular, in Italy went from representing 8,1% of the total population in 1950 to 22,8% in 2019. In the same period of time, the weight of the 0-14 age group from 26,7 to 13,2%. The debate on the relationship between demographic structure and economic growth has rekindled in recent years and aims both to analyze the changes in savings and consumption preferences that the aging of the population produces, and the changes in the quality and quantity of the job offer, in productivity, innovation and entrepreneurship. According to an analysis conducted by the United Nations, for example, levels of consumption among the elderly in advanced countries are higher (up to 30% higher in some countries) than in any other group of adults.
