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More robots, less employment: it's the industry of the future

FOCUS BNL - The manufacturing sector has significantly reduced its ability to create jobs - Now in the US only 2 out of 5 workers in industry are directly involved in the production of goods - In Chinese factories there are about 50 robots for every 10 workers against 300 in Germany and Japan and more than 500 in South Korea

More robots, less employment: it's the industry of the future

The development of manufacturing is now proposed almost everywhere as the key to promoting economic growth, also thanks to its presumed ability to favor the creation of jobs more than other sectors. Worldwide, the value of manufacturing (2015, latest data available) reached 11,7 trillion dollars (16% of world GDP), of which about 3 produced by China and 2,2 by the United States. In the ranking of the main producers, Japan, Germany, South Korea and India follow, which since 2007 has overtaken France and the United Kingdom first, and then Italy (in seventh position).

A more careful analysis shows how, despite what was hoped, in recent years manufacturing has significantly reduced its ability to create employment, especially in advanced countries and already before the start of the global recession. In the 25 years between 1990 and 2015, the black jersey of employment goes to the United Kingdom, where one employee out of two in the sector lost their job; the contraction in France (-40%), Japan (-38%) and Italy (-30%) was also notable. The decline also affected manufacturing employment in some emerging countries, especially Mexico and Brazil.

The causes of the reduction in employment are various, in part attributable to the growing automation of processes, which now concerns both advanced and emerging countries. In the United States, investments in this field have led to the elimination of many routine jobs in assembly lines and today it is estimated that only two out of five workers in the sector are directly involved in the production of goods.

In China, the government has embarked on a number of projects to replace manual labor with machines. However, the level of automation in the country still remains very low compared to its main advanced competitors: in Chinese factories there are about 50 robots for every 10 workers compared to 300 in Germany and Japan and more than 500 in South Korea.

Italy's market share in world manufacturing from 1978 to 2015 rose from 3,7 to 2,2%. In addition, over the last twenty-five years the sector has lost almost a third of employment. The sector has recently shown signs of recovery. In May, the sector production index recorded an increase of 3,1% compared to the same month of 2016 which brought the variation in the first five months of 2017 to +1,3% on an annual basis. The growth is mainly due to the good performance of pharmaceuticals (+3,9% between January and May), means of transport (+4,4%) and chemicals.

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