The financial week kicks off under the banner of Taurus. Thanks to a rise close to a percentage point, Asian stock exchanges this morning reached a ten-year high. For once, the weekend went by without Rocket Man (the nickname Donald Trump gave to dictator Kim Jong-un) launching a missile. This is also why the Seoul Stock Exchange shines, boosted by Samsung (+3,20%), galvanized by the successes of the Galaxy in the face of the quiet debut of Apple's latest iPhone. But attention is focused on the speech that Donald Trump will give to the UN assembly this week.
FLY HONG KONG, FUTURES RISE IN EUROPE
Chinese listings also rose, driven by Hong Kong (+1,1%): the threat of a squeeze on real estate credit vanishes one month before the Communist Party Congress.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange is closed today. The holidays didn't stop Prime Minister Shinzo Abe from announcing early elections in October, with the aim of taking advantage of the recovery atmosphere and moving early before the opposition expresses a strong candidacy. Given the political situation, it is likely that the Bank of Japan, which will meet on Thursday, will not intervene on the cost of money.
An upward opening is also foreseen for European lists: at the start of the week which will culminate with the German elections, futures show an increase of 0,4%. The meeting of finance ministers of the euro zone in Tallin ended with the formulation of the request to tax the revenues and not the profits of the web giants. A European Parliament report estimates that large American companies have evaded more than five billion euros in taxes.
Safe-haven assets lose share. Gold trades at $1.317 an ounce. The oil rally continues: Brent travels this morning at 55,7 dollars a barrel, +0,2%. Last week, the third consecutive increase, the increase was 3,4%.
BIS ALARM: WORLD DEBT HIGHER BY 13 TRILLION
The report by the Bis, the International Bank of Settlements, cracks the climate of general optimism, which shows that the debt accumulated by the global economy needs to be adjusted upwards by as much as 13 trillion dollars because the current estimates, albeit astronomical, do not take into account the accumulated derivative contracts on the foreign exchange market. In this context, the return of the cost of money to normal levels risks resembling, in the words of the secretary Luciano Borio, "a repetition of waiting for Godot".
THE FED CUTS THE BUDGET BUT NOT TOUCHING RATES
The Fed is trying to deny this diagnosis this week. The meeting of the US central bank will be held tomorrow and Wednesday, preceded on Friday by the historic rise of the S&P 500 index, for the first time beyond the barrier of 2.500 points. Board to initiate central bank balance sheet reduction programme; a soft operation (the bank will not reinvest the interest, reducing the balance sheet by 10 billion a month) which however marks a trend reversal, compared to the 4,500 billion injected into the market during the crisis years. On the other hand, there should be no news on unchanged rates: indeed, the increase could be postponed to 2018: "The combination of lower than expected inflation, volatility of data for hurricanes and the shift to December of political risks on the spending law - he points out the research office of Banca Intesa - leads us to eliminate the increase of December 2017”.
CARNEY AND DRAGONS SPEAK, THE DEF COMES
On the front of central banks, the speech that the governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, will give today in Washington to the Monetary Fund deserves attention. It is the banker's first intervention after the intention to proceed with the first rate hike in ten years emerged at the last meeting of the central bank.
Theresa May will give a speech on Brexit in Florence on Friday, revealing the British government's intentions on settling commitments with the EU.
The directorate of the ECB will also meet on Wednesday, but this time there will be no talk of rates. The next day Mario Draghi will speak at the meeting of the Board of the ESRB (European Systemic risk Board).
In Italy to follow today the data of the trade balance. Instead, it will be necessary to wait until Thursday to find out the content of the Def update note: the growth forecast, also in the light of the latest estimates, should be revised upwards to 1,5%.
THE "PRADA OF TIRES" IS ASKING FOR 8,3 BILLION
Even Piazza Affari, back from an excellent performance (+15,7% from the beginning of the year for the Ftse Mib index, the best index among developed countries) is about to experience a week in its own historic way, characterized by the return of the Pirelli share to the Stock Exchange . From this morning to 28 September there will be a public offer of the freshman born in Milan 142 years ago and which has over a hundred years of stock market history behind it. But the new Pirelli returns to the stock exchange with different characteristics from the old one.
In fact, the quotation only concerns high-end tyres, to the point that the Financial Times spoke of "Prada of tyres". This explains the price set for the Public Offer: a range of values between 6,3 and 8,3 euros, corresponding to a valuation between 6,3 and 8,3 billion euros. At these prices, according to analysts, Pirelli trades at multiples similar to those of the Finnish Nokia (11,3 times the EBITDA), known for the quality of its winter tyres, more or less double the valuation (6 times the EBITDA) by Michelin, Continental and Goodyear.
The operation will be followed with particular attention also because it is a sort of "first time" for a company with such a strong Chinese equity component, even if Marco Tronchetti Provera has obtained a series of guarantees and stakes to protect the Italian nature of the group .
GIMA AND AQUAFIL ALSO MAKE THE DEBUT, THE RETURN OF MPS CLOSER
The debut of another freshman inevitably risks overshadowing: today the placement of the Bolognese Gima (controlled by Ima) begins. The price is fixed in the price range that goes from 9,6 to 12,5 euros. The offer, including the possible exercise of the green shoe, concerns 38,5% of the share capital. Gima will allocate the funds raised to the development of investments in the low-risk cigarette packaging sector.
Thursday 21 will be held the auction of credit default swaps on Montepaschi's subordinated debt, a new element in view of the institution's return to the Stock Exchange, now 70% under the control of the Treasury. The road show led by CEO Marco Morelli should start next week. At the beginning of October, Consob should start the investigation into the new registration document. On day 5 there will be a board meeting in preparation for the return to the list on day 9, at an initial price of 8,65 euros. In the meantime, the Treasury will move to rewrite parts of the statute, which today is limited to half the number of directors of the majority even in the event of an absolute majority of the capital.
A decisive step forward also for Aquafil's listing on the Stock Exchange: the shareholders' meeting of the company, which aims at admission to the Star, approved the merger into Spac 3, the vehicle chosen to accelerate the listing of the Trentino company, European leader in production of fibers for textile flooring.
CALTAGIRONE PUBLISHER, TAKEOVER OFFER TOWARDS THE FLOP
Returning stocks, freshmen, but also a possible delisting, given that the takeover bid for 21 euros on Save kicks off today and will close on 13 October. This is a mandatory proposal taken after control of the company passed from the hands of the Enrico Marchi-Andrea De Vido tandem to those of the consortium made up of Marchi himself, the funds of Deutsche Bank and Infravia.
Barring twists and turns, the takeover bid on Caltagirone Editore finally seems doomed to failure, which concludes today after the increase in the offer is part of the majority shareholder, Caltagirone itself, from 1 to 1,22 euros. The attitude of Amber Capital, which controls almost 10% of the capital, will be decisive.
A NEW TREASURE FOR PARMALAT
Parmalat is also in the spotlight. Il Sole 24 Ore reveals that an agreement with Citigroup is in sight to settle the latest dispute related to crack. The US bank seems willing to liquidate the dispute for an amount close to 400 million which will strengthen the coffers of the company now controlled by Lactalis which, on balance, has carried out the purchase of the group, already the subject of a failed total takeover bid ), at no cost.
The Piazza Affari agenda today also includes the payment of the interim dividend by Eni (0,40 euro) and Stm (0,06 euro).
