The data on GDP released today by Istat, although negative in absolute terms, must be evaluated with reference to the expectations of the day before, and they are better than they appear. This was stated by Sergio De Nardis, chief economist of Nomisma.
According to the scholar, "the decline in GDP in the second quarter was lower than expected, while industrial production, although declining on average for the quarter, reached a low point between May and June: the leading indicators say that the coming months are in sign of improvement.
However, warns De Nardis, "the intensity of the recovery is uncertain, which is driven by foreign demand and by the stock rebuilding cycle", just as its sustainability over time is uncertain due to "final domestic demand which remains weak and of the credit crunch which is being felt above all for companies with fewer than 50 employees”
In July – he observes – over 20% of small businesses that had applied for credit did not obtain it, a higher percentage than that recorded in the post-Lehman squeeze”.
Attachments: Istat: GDP 2nd quarter
