An optimistic forecast had already arrived at the beginning of the week from Bank of Italy estimates on the Italian GDP, which according to Via Nazionale should grow by 4% on average in the two-year period 2021-2022. But Istat, in its document on the prospects for the Italian economy in 2021-2022, seems to go even further: for our country it foresees a higher GDP growth both in 2021 (+4,7%), both in 2022 (+4,4%), after it had lost 2020% in 8,9 and grew by only 2019% in 0,3. According to the assessments of the statistical institute, this strong recovery will be driven above all by the internal question – which will grow by 4,6% in 2021 net of inventories – and investments, which will increase by almost 11% this year. The scenario, specifies the same institute, "incorporates the effects of the progressive introduction of the interventions envisaged by the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR). The risks associated with the scenario are linked to the actual ability to implement the planned measures and to the evolution of the health emergency".
The expected evolution of investments would also allow for a decisive recovery of their share of GDP, which would rise by around 2 percentage points, from 17,8% in 2020 to 19,6% in 2022. A little less important this time, will be external demand: Covid is still hitting hard in many areas of the world and this is affecting international trade. This is why exports, which continue to be a strong point of our economy, will make a contribution of just 0,1% in 2021, while it will even score -0,1% in 2022.
"In the first few months of the year, the international scenario was characterized by a decisive recovery in world trade and a progressive improvement in production, albeit with heterogeneous timing and rhythms between countries", writes Istat in its note. Acceleration in sight also for work.
Employment aligns with GDP growth and in 2021 Istat forecasts it at +4,5%, with a further +4,1% next year. The trend in the unemployment rate will instead reflect the progressive normalization of the labor market - with the end of the freeze on layoffs which will inevitably cause an increase in job seekers in the current year (+9,8%), and a slight decline in 2022 (+9,6%).
The trend towards one has also been confirmed inflation picks up, driven by the effects of oil and commodity price increases. The resident household spending deflator will increase by 1,3% in the current year, driven by the rise in the prices of energy goods, to then record a deceleration in 2022 (+1,1%).
