THEIstat review data on GDP 2014 (positively) and 2015 (in the negative). The first passes -0,3 to +0,1%, The second one from +0,8 to +0,7%. Meanwhile, anticipation is growing for the presentation of the update note of the Economic and Financial Document that the government will present at the beginning of next week and which - as already announced by the Minister of the Treasury, Pier Carlo Padoan – will contain a downward revision of the 2016 GDP estimates. In the whirlwind of revisions, this is precisely the decisive question (why impacts on the balances of the Stability law): how much will we grow this year?
“Italian growth is at 1%. I'm not happy about it – said Prime Minister Matteo Renzi in an interview with the Washington Post held last Tuesday in New York and published today – but last year it was 0,8%, three years ago it was -1,9%. We changed direction, but the speed is not that of my dreams."
Last January, Renzi had defined growth of 2016% for 1,6 as “absolutely within our reach”. Then the international slowdown and Brexit helped to slow down the economy and in April the Government entered in the Def a forecast of +1,2%. But according to the International Monetary Fund +1% is already too optimistic and after the British referendum Confindustria e Promethea they warned that we will stop at +0,8%.
It's not over: just today Promethea further cut its 2016 GDP estimates from +0,8% to +0,7% and those for 2017 from +0,9% to +0,8%, while two days ago it had beenOECD to cut forecasts for this year from +1% to +0,8% and even from +1,4 to +0,8% for next year.
Returning to the Istat data on 2015, the institute explains that the new data incorporate the revision of the national accounts for the three-year period 2013-2015, carried out to take into account the information acquired after the estimate published in March.
In 2015, GDP at market prices amounted to 1.642.444 million current euros, with an upward revision of 6.072 million compared to the previous estimate.
Also last year, gross fixed investments grew by 1,3%, national final consumption by 1%, exports of goods and services by 4,3% and imports by 6%. Value added, at constant prices, increased by 3,7% in agriculture, forestry and fishing, by 1,3% in industry in the strict sense and by 0,4% in the services sector. On the other hand, a decrease of 1,2% was recorded in construction.
For all non-financial corporations, the profit share was 41% and the investment rate was 19,3%. The disposable income of consumer families recorded a growth of 0,9% both in nominal value and in terms of purchasing power. As private consumption increased by 1,5%, households' propensity to save fell to 8,3% (from 8,9% in 2014).
The net indebtedness of general government as a ratio of GDP was equal to -2015% in 2,6 (-3% in 2014), with an unchanged value compared to the estimate published in March. The primary balance (net borrowing minus interest expenditure) is 1,5% of GDP.
As for the 2014, Istat specifies that GDP in volume grew by 0,1%, with an upward revision of 0,4 percentage points compared to the decrease of 0,3 percentage points estimated in March. For 2014, the level of GDP has been revised upwards by 8.497 million euros.
