If the economic situation continues on its current track, the rebound of Italian GDP in 2021 will be higher than expected. This is certified, after the latest Istat data, by the government and Confindustria.
On Monday, during a hearing in the Chamber on the Sostegni bis decree, the Minister of Economy Daniel Franco he said that, “if everything continues at the pace of the last few weeks in terms of health and the economy, the annual GDP forecast will probably be revised upwards. We expect a growing second quarter and then growth to consolidate in the third and fourth quarters”.
The forecast that should be revised upwards is the +4,5% contained in the Economic and Financial Document published last April, when Franco himself had spoken of "prudential estimates", given the "GDP growth rates never experienced before from now".
On the same line the number 1 of the industrialists, Carlo Bonomi, who said he was confident in the possibility of “a small economic miracle. We are very optimistic – he added – We believe that this year we will achieve a 5% increase in GDP. However, the real turning point depends on our ability to carry out those reforms that the country has been waiting for for 25 years. Today there are the resources and there is a very large majority in Parliament to be able to implement them”.
Optimism also involves Istat, which – according to forecast released last Friday – expects a 2021% rebound in Italian GDP in 4,7.
The figure is far higher than that estimated by Bank of Italy. In his last final considerations, in fact, the governor Ignazio Visco limited himself to saying that "on average for the year the expansion of the GDP could exceed 4%".
