Italy's GDP to rebound by 10% in the third quarter. This is the forecast contained in the institute's latest economic analysis Ref Searches. “Available data show a phase of growth in the months of July and August – reads Congiuntura.ref – Of course, the speed of the recovery slows down compared to the rebound in May-June, therefore, while still narrowing, the gap compared to production levels at the beginning of the year remain high”.
According to the research institute, “in Italy the industry is recovering from the lows and in August the tourist season it was characterized by a serious crisis, but decidedly less profound than feared”.
However, analysts point out that “there is still a long way to go to return to pre-crisis levels and marked by the risks of a second wave of Covid-19”.
The real problem is that "the picture relating to the evolution of the epidemic is not yet clear – continue the economists Ref Ricerche – the number of infections has started to increase again in the major European countries, even if the data on hospitalized patients are less worrying. The degree of restriction on economic activities that could characterize the autumn months will depend on the trends in the coming weeks. For now, the most probable hypothesis is that autumn can be faced without new lockdowns, but all options are still open".
In this scenario, it still reads in the Congiuntura.ref, “a relative degree of optimism about the outlook shines through on the stock exchanges”, because among the operators “the prevailing hypothesis is that the central banks will continue with the policies for the purchase of securities and will keep interest rates very low for a long time. On the one hand, this is keeping long-term rates at very low levels in all major economies; on the other, it is having positive effects on the majority of financial assets, all of which are undergoing a price recovery phase”.
In the end, "the tensions on the spreads of the countries of the Eurozone have subsided, and on this point the decision on the Recovery Fund also contributed, which offers direct support above all to Italy, which before the summer was the only country penalized by a relatively high spread”.
