Not particularly good news for the Italian economy comes from the Prometeia study centre, which lowers its estimates of Italian GDP in 2018 by 0,2 percentage points, bringing it from +1,4%, in line with the +1,5% forecast from the Treasury and the EU, at a more modest +1,2%. The lower contribution of exports weighs on the forecast, also due to the war on trade duties, but also the uncertainty about the activity of a government which was finally formed, but is not yet able to guarantee the concrete implementation of the economic measures indicated in the government programme. Prometeia has also lowered its estimates for 2019, from +1,3 to +1,2%.
“Italy – comments the Bolognese research center – has overcome the acute phase of political uncertainty but its position remains precarious. From an economic point of view, the change in the cyclical phase and in international conditions leads us to wonder whether we are facing a turning point after 15 quarters of growth”. In terms of government bonds, Prometeia believes that "the spread will hardly fall back to the levels of the beginning of the year and, indeed, it will tend to rise again in the autumn months, during the definition of budgetary policies for the next few years and in correspondence with the reduction of the additional amount of securities purchased by the ECB. This results in a ten-year Btp/Bund spread forecast of 280 basis points at the end of 2018.
The uncertainty on the concrete implementation of the government program will also lead to a higher interest expense of 2 billion euros in 2019 and 3 billion in 2020. And even if the program were eventually implemented, it wouldn't even be such good news: Prometeia has also estimated that the "flat tax", as hypothesized, risks being decidedly regressive, with more than 68% of the total tax savings benefiting the wealthiest classes. As for duties, they are bad news not only for Italy but for all global trade, which will consequently slow down.
However, according to Prometeia, the damage should be limited only to some countries and sectors: in fact, the forecasts of world GDP for 2018 (from 3,7% to 3,9%) and 2019 (from 3,4% to 3,5%). Above all, it will be precisely for the USA that the tariffs will be less advantageous: a simulation has shown that the sum of the partners' countermeasures would make the trade war much more burdensome for the US economy (effect on real GDP up to 1,4% on an annual basis) than for the other countries.
