Il International Monetary Fund has raised consistently the forecasts on the Italian GDP for 2021. In the last World Economic Outlook we speak of a + 4,2 %, or 1,2% more than the estimates released last January. For the 2022, on the other hand, the Fund expects growth of 3,6%, unchanged from the one published three months ago. Finally, the data relating to the 2020, revised from -9,2 to -8,9%.
As for the other budget data, the IMF estimates a ratio for Italy deficit-GDP 2020 to 9,5%, which should be followed by 8,8% this year and 5,5% next. But Istat reports that in one year our country has lost 945 jobs, despite the blocking of layoffs.
Il debt-GDPhowever, it hit 155,6% last year and will rise again to 157,1% in 2021, before declining slightly to 155,5% in 2022.
On 28 January, the Fund had forecast a deficit-GDP of 10,9% in 2020 and 7,5% in 2021, while the debt-GDP was estimated at 157,5% and 159,7% respectively.
On the labor side, the IMF argues that the unemployment rate Italian has stopped at 9,1% in 2020, but also that it is destined to rise to 10,3% this year and 11,6% in 2022.
The Monetary Fund has also improved forecasts on theglobal economy: after -3,3% of GDP in 2020, a rebound of 6% is expected this year, 0,5% more than the figures indicated at the end of January. The estimate for 2022, on the other hand, rises by 0,2 percentage points, to +4,4%.
In detail, for the Use - after the new stimulus package launched by the Biden administration - the forecast for 2021 was raised by 1,3 points, to +6,4%, while that for 2022 rose by 1%, to 3,5% .
the euro area, on the other hand, the increase is limited to 0,2 points over both years, respectively +4,4% and +3,8%.
La China, the only large economy not to have experienced a recession in 2020 (+2,3%), should recover at a pace of 8,4% this year (+0,3% compared to previous forecasts) and 5,6% the next (data unchanged).
In addition to disseminating the new macroeconomic forecasts, the Fund also launches one complaint about access to vaccines anti-Covid, defined as "profoundly unfair", because "high-income countries, where 16% of the world's population lives, have booked 50% of the doses".
