La European Commission further improved forecasts for Italy's recovery. According to new estimates, released Thursday morning, our country's GDP will grow by 2021% in 6,2, while next year the expansion will be 4,3% and in 2023 2,3%. In the previous forecasts, published on 7 July, Brussels predicted +5% for this year and +4,2% for 2022. Even then it was an upward revision for 2021, given that three months earlier the estimates were by +4,2%.
According to the technicians of the Community executive, after the rebound in the first half of 2021, Italy's real GDP will continue to grow, supported by domestic demand and in particular by strong investment spending.
As for the other budget items, the recovery will bring down both the deficit/GDP (expected at 9,4% this year, after 9,6% in 2020) both the debt/GDP (to 154,4%, from 155,6% last year). Not only that: for Brussels, the decline will continue in 2022 (to 5,8 and 151,4% respectively) and 2023 (4,3 and 151,0%).
However, commodity and energy price pressures are set to push inflation, which is expected to settle at 1,8% this year, to then exceed 2% next year and fall again to around 1,4% in 2023.
As for the rate unemployment, in 2021 it will rise to 9,8%, from 9,2% in 2020, to then decrease to 9,3% next year and to 9,2% in 2023, thus returning to the 2020 value.
Finally, employment: after the collapse of 10,3% in 2020, according to the EU, this year Italy will recover 5,9%, in 2022 4% and in 2023 2%.
However, forecasts remain subject to downside risks linked to the pandemic, warns the Commission.
THE NUMBERS OF THE EUROZONE
The same caveat applies to estimates for the Eurozone: the European Commission revised the figure for 4,8 growth upwards (from +5 to +2021%), while it revised downwards (from +4,5 to +4,3. 2022%) for 2,4. In the autumn economic forecasts, the EU executive then estimates a +2023% for XNUMX.
The Commission has also revised upwards its inflation forecast for the euro area: from 1,9 to 2,4% for this year and from 1,4 to 2,2% for 2022. However, for 2023 Brussels continues to forecast a value (equal to 1,4%) which would be lower than the levels pursued by the European Central Bank. As a result, the fear that monetary tightening could come sooner than expected is not yet justified by the numbers.
GENTILONI'S COMMENT
The economic recovery in Europe is changing from a rebound “to an expansion, but now it is also experiencing some headwinds – commented the European Commissioner for the Economy, Paolo Gentiloni – The strengthening of growth is helping to stabilize public finances, while the support of Next Generation Eu has helped to bring public investment to the highest levels for over ten years. There are now three key risks to watch out for: rising Covid cases, accelerating inflation and problems in global supply chains weighing on many sectors.
