La European Commission has revised up the forecast on the Italian GDP growth 2021, bringing it down from 4,2% (figure released on May 12) to 5% (same level foreshadowed on Tuesday by the Minister of Economy, Daniele Franco). As for the 2022, the estimate drops from 4,4 to 4,2%.
Furthermore, in the summer forecasts, Brussels improves the estimates relating toEurozone both for this year (+4,3 to +4,8%) and for 2022 (+4,4 to +4,5%). However, the European Commission indicates that the new forecasting framework is subject to "substantial risks". “Uncertainties and risks for growth prospects are high but remain balanced overall”. The risks posed by the emergence and spread of variants of the virus, the Commission points out, underline the importance of further accelerating the pace of vaccination campaigns.
In 2020, the Italian GDP had collapsed by 8,9% and that of the currency area by 6,5%.
"It is essential to keep supportive policies in place for as long as necessary to keep the recovery on track," said the European Commissioner for Economic Affairs, Paolo Gentiloni.
As for the lowering of the forecast for Italy in 2022, Gentiloni explained that, "in addition to the prospects for a rebound, the Pnrr and the Commission of this plan has so far evaluated only the impact of the investments, not that of the reforms, because it is very difficult. However – added the former Premier – in my opinion, the reforms can significantly increase the possibilities of growth also in the following years”.
on the side ofinflation, this year in the Eurozone it will recover to 1,9%, only to then moderate again to 1,4% in 2022. "We will have to carefully monitor the increase in inflation", remarked the vice president of the Commission, Valdis Dombrovskis .
Moreover, the general figure hides dynamics that are anything but homogeneous between the various countries. According to European estimates, the cost of living in Germany will reach 2,8% this year, to then moderate to 1,6% in 2022; conversely, in Greece it will score -0,4% in 2021 and +0,5% in 2022. Inflation is expected for Italy at 1,4% this year and 1,2% next .
Finally, Gentiloni said that the European Commission "does not have specific assessments on the impact of the Italian government's decision to end the blocking of layoffs, but not in a generalized way; I think it is part of the policies that we encourage at European level, of gradual withdrawal of emergency measures" to move on to more targeted measures that favor recovery.
