Italy has stopped growing. Istat says so in the preliminary estimate valid for the months of July, August and September. According to the institute, in the third quarter of 2018, the Italian Domestic Product remained unchanged compared with the previous three months, in preliminary data adjusted for calendar effects and seasonally adjusted. On a trend level, the growth rate is instead equal to 0,8 percent.
The estimate made known by Istat immediately had an impact on the spread which is back above 300 points from 291 in the opener. Worrying signs also for today's BTP auction, with the 3,38-year yield soaring to XNUMX%.
The reaction of Piazza Affari was also immediate, which after a positive start clearly reversed the trend, losing 0,8%. Contrast the banks that an hour ago were traveling in clearly positive territory: -0,33% per Intesa Sanpaolo, -1,28% for Unicredit, +0,1% per Bpm bank and +0,4% per Ubi. Off the Ftse Mib, slow down the run by Ps which had started the day with +7,6% and at 10.30 gained 0,75%.
Returning to the Istat estimates, “In the third quarter of 2018 the dynamics of the Italian economy was stagnant, marking a pause in the expansive trend that has been going on for over three years”, comments the National Institute of Statistics.
“After a phase of progressive deceleration of growth, – explains Istat – this result implies un lowering of the trend growth rate of the GDP, which passes to 0,8%, from 1,2% in the second quarter”.
In the third quarter, value added in agriculture, forestry, fishing and services increased, but that in industry decreased. Not surprisingly, “this estimate, which is provisional in nature, reflects the ongoing one on the supply side weakness of industrial activity – manifested during the year after a phase of intense expansion – barely counterbalanced by the weak growth of the other sectors”, affirms Istat.
The variation acquired for 2018 is equal to +1%. This is the preliminary estimate of the growth that would be obtained in the presence of zero cyclical change in the last quarter of the year.
It should be taken into consideration that the third quarter of 2018 had two working days more than the previous quarter and the same number compared to the third quarter of 2017.
