The maneuver and the stability Law approved by the government will produce an increase in GDP of 0,5% in 2014. This is what can be read in the forecast report on the short-medium term prospects of the international and Italian economy presented today by Prometeia.
"The measure of the effects could appear high (although lower than the government's estimates) if compared to historical experience - writes the association -, but it should not be forgotten that it also takes into account the acceleration of the payments of the public administrations' debts".
According to Prometheia, the reduction in GDP in 2013 was confirmed at just under 2% (-1,8), with the fourth quarter expected to show a first positive sign of growth. In 2014 the recovery will proceed at a pace of just under 1% (0,8). Consumption and investments in construction, however, will return to growth only in 2015.
Il debt will continue to expand in absolute value by 65 billion euros, after having grown by 82 in 2013, reaching 134% of GDP in 2014. The placement of new public debt next year it will have to find space mainly in household wallets, directly or indirectly, or in foreign ones.
The association argues that the banking system will hardly be able to absorb such an amount of public debt in its portfolios after having absorbed around 100 billion in 2013. Indeed, it could reduce the stock of public bonds held. If this were not the case, the possibility of increasing loans to the private sector would suffer, in a context in which non-performing loans are still growing and foreign funding is much more difficult.
"In summary, even if there will no longer be political uncertainties (unlikely) - writes Prometeia again -, even if the transition of the baton in the attention of financial operators from the risk of negative interaction banks-sovereign debts to the risk of negative interaction banks-corporate debt (probable), even if our deviation from the debt reduction path envisaged by the Fiscal Compact will have no effect on the financial markets (very likely if the previous risks do not materialize), the next five quarters for the Italian economy will proceed on a razor's edge. The simultaneous occurrence of prolonged political instability and possibly also increasing strains on the balance sheet of the stress-tested banking system would push our economy down a path of progressive asphyxiation. But this is a hypothesis that Prometeia continues to consider "quite remote".
