In the fourth quarter of 2020, the Italian economy collapsed again due to the Pandemic: GDP contracted by 3,5%, which brings the total for the year to -9,2%. But this is still a very uncertain estimate: the reality could be much worse. In any case, starting from spring, the ascent should begin, up to a rebound of 3,5% in 2021. The forecasts then speak of an acceleration in 2022 (with a rise in GDP of 3,8%), Followed by a slowdown in 2023 (+2,3%). These are the estimates contained in the latest economic bulletin of the Bank of Italy.
“In Italy – explains Via Nazionale – the higher-than-expected growth in the third quarter showed a strong recovery capacity of the economy. However, the second pandemic wave determined a new contraction of GDP in the fourth quarter. On the basis of the available indicators, this decline can currently be assessed in the order of -3,5%, even if the uncertainty around this estimate is very high”.
as to growth forecast for this year (+3,5%), "significantly affected by the unfavorable carrying-over effect of the decline in GDP envisaged for the final part of 2020 - Bank of Italy continues - The dynamics of activity, on the other hand, is more robust starting from the second quarter and significantly stronger in 2022, thanks to the stimulus of support measures”.
For 2021-23, adds Palazzo Koch, “investments would resume growing at a sustained pace, benefiting from the stimulus measures, and the recovery of the exports. That of the consumption instead it would be more gradual, with only a partial reabsorption of the greater propensity to save observed since the onset of the epidemic. L'inflation it would remain low also during this year, to then rise only gradually in the two-year period 2022-23”.
The occupation, measured in terms of hours worked, will recover the fall suffered last year (-2023%) by 11, but the recovery will only begin next year. The number of employed people, "which fell to a lesser extent (-1,9% in 2020) thanks to the extensive recourse to layoffs", will in fact continue to fall again this year (-0,9%), "discounting the effects retarded by the crisis”, to then mark a +1,7% in 2022 and a +1,3% in 2023.
