In fourth quarter of 2020, Italian GDP fell by 2% on a cyclical basis (in line with the consensus of analysts) and 6,6% in trend terms, according to the preliminary estimates released on 2 February by Istat. The Statistical Institute specifies that the latest quarterly survey leads the full year result at -8,8%, slightly better than the expected -9%. In seasonally adjusted terms, in 2020 the Italian GDP fell by 8,9%.
Istat underlines that the Italian economy, after the strong recovery in the third quarter (+16%), recorded a new decline in the fourth "due to the economic effects of the new measures adopted to contain the health emergency. This result leads to an expansion of the trend decline in GDP: from -5,1% in the previous quarter to -6,6%”.
The cyclical variation is the synthesis of decreases in added value recorded in all the main production sectors: agriculture, forestry and fishing, industry and services. Demand was negative both domestic (gross of inventories) and net foreign demand.
As for the whole Eurozone– according to the preliminary estimate of Eurostat – GDP fell by 0,7% in the fourth quarter compared to the July-September period, when there was a rebound of 12,4%. On an annual basis, however, the change in the fourth quarter is negative 5,1% (after -4,3% in the third and -14,7% in the second).
Italy's economic data is only better than that ofAustria (-4,3%), while on a trend basis they are worse than our country only Spain (-9,1%) and once again Austria (-7,8%). In comparison with the third quarter, the only positive change is that of Germany, which saw the GDP even rise by 1%.
Il Eurozone GDP 2020 then register one contraction of 6,8%, while that of the EU drops by 6,4% of the entire EU. Eurostat explains that these estimates are based on incomplete data and are therefore subject to revisions.
