Confindustria revise downwards the forecasts on the trend of the Italian GDP for 2020. According to the latest flash economic situation published by the association's study centre, our country will end the year with a contraction in gross domestic product equal to 9,6% compared to 2019. In the earlier estimate, released March 31, there was still talk of a -6%.
The industrialists line up like this to the European Commission, which in the spring forecast communicated on 6 May predicted a 9,5% recession for Italy. Both figures are worse than either estimate entered by the government in the Def (-8%) both of that calculated by the IMF (-9,1%). Added to these forecasts is that of Prometeia which for 2020 expects a drop in GDP of 8,5% (the previous estimate was -6,5%).
Returning to the CSC, in the first quarter the GDP suffered a collapse beyond expectations (-4,7%), which will follow between April and June an almost double contraction (-9%). In the third and fourth quarters, if all economic sectors remain free to operate, a partial recovery is expected, held back by accumulated inventories and the difficulties of many companies, which will continue in 2021 (+5,6%).
The Confindustria Study Center explains that "the heavy downward revision" on 2020 is due to two factors: "The extension by decree from 13 April to 4 May, with few exceptions, of the partial closure of economic activity in Italy" and "a sharper drop in domestic and foreign demand, which also slows down the activity of companies authorized to reopen".
The CsC also gets much worse investment forecasts, which will be overwhelmed by a "historic fall" of -15,5% (from -10,6% estimated in March), which will be recovered "only partially in 2021 (+9,1%), weighing on future growth" .
Still on the public accounts side, analysts from viale dell'Astronomia estimate that this year the deficit will go as high as 11,1% of GDP, or almost 10 percentage points more than the 1,6% in 2019. "The increase - reads the report - is minimally attributable to the effects of the last Budget Law" and "mostly due to the measures of the Government to counter the negative effects of Covid-19 (4,6 points) and the collapse of the GDP". Next year the deficit will drop to 5,6% of GDP, also discounting the deactivation of the 20,1 billion VAT safeguard clause.
As it regards instead the debt/GDP ratio, according to the Confindustria Study Center, it will rise to 159,1% in 2020, to then drop to 155,4% in 2021. This is the highest data ever.
Little encouraging news also arrived on Friday from Germany. Destatis, the German Federal Statistical Office, has released a preliminary estimate on GDP for the first quarter, seen down by 2,2% on a quarterly basis (in line with expectations) after the -0,1% recorded in the three months previous. On an annual basis, the figure – corrected for calendar effects – marks -1,9% after the revised -0,2% in the 4th quarter of the year (first reading +0,3%). Consensus estimates were for a 1,6% contraction.
